Rates of Return to Fertilizer: Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya

Last registered on November 01, 2016
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Rates of Return to Fertilizer: Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0001750
Initial registration date
November 01, 2016

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 01, 2016, 4:54 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Kenya
Region
Africa

Primary Investigator

Name
Jonathan Robinson
Affiliation
University of California, Santa Cruz
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Michael Kremer
PI Affiliation
Harvard University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Esther Duflo
PI Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2000-06-01
End date
2003-09-30
Keywords
Agriculture
Additional Keywords
Fertilizer, Investment, Returns to fertilizer, Crop yield
JEL code(s)
Q16, O13
Secondary IDs
Abstract
In this paper, we use a series of field trials on Kenyan farms to explore the possibility that, while fertilizer and hybrid seed increase yield on model farms, they are actually not profitable on many small farms, where conditions are less than optimal. Our mean estimates of yield increases due to fertilizer use are in the range of the estimates found on model farms. We find that the mean rate of return to using the most profitable quantity of fertilizer we examined was 36 percent over a season, or 69.5 percent on an annualized basis. However, other levels of fertilizer use, including the combination of fertilizer plus hybrid seed recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture, are not profitable for farmers in our sample.
External Link(s)
J-PAL Evaluation Summary

Registration Citation

Citation
Duflo, Esther, Michael Kremer and Jonathan Robinson. 2016. "Rates of Return to Fertilizer: Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. November 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.1750-1.0
Former Citation
Duflo, Esther, Michael Kremer and Jonathan Robinson. 2016. "Rates of Return to Fertilizer: Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. November 01. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1750/history/11584
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
1/4 teaspoon top-dressing CAN, applied 2 months after farming.

1/2 teaspoon top-dressing CAN, applied 2 months after farming.

1 teaspoon top-dressing CAN, applied 2 months after farming.

Full package recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture: Hybrid seeds, 1 teaspoon top-dressing CAN, and 1 teaspoon di-ammonium phosphate, applied 2 months after farming.

Comparison: Business as usual farming.
Intervention Start Date
2000-06-01
Intervention End Date
2003-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Crop yield, Rates of return to fertilizer
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Crop yield was measured by the dry weight of harvested maize.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A series of six field trials over three years were designed to ascertain the profitability of fertilizer on farms in Busia District, a relatively poor rural district in Western Kenya. Field officers measured out 3 plots of land at a time, and in the first few seasons allocation of the treatments was as follows: the first plot was selected to receive Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) fertilizer to be applied as top dressing 2 months after planting; the second plot was assigned the full package reccommended by the Ministry of Agriculture (hybrid seeds, Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) fertilizer, and CAN for use at top dressing); and the third plot was a comparison plot, where farmers farmed as usual, with traditional seed and without fertilizer. In the last few seasons, the quantity of fertilizer applied to the plots was also varied.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Stata
Randomization Unit
Individual (farmer)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
673 farmers
Sample size: planned number of observations
673 farmers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1/4 teaspoon top-dressing fertilizer: 112 farmers
1/2 teaspoon top-dressing fertilizer: 202 farmers
1 teaspoon top-dressing fertilizer: 274 farmers
Full package recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture: 85 farmers
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
September 30, 2003, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
September 30, 2003, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
Yes
Public Data URL
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:1902.1/19699&studyListingIndex=0_54dc4a5abeff3c10bd851427baca

Program Files

Program Files
Yes
Program Files URL
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:1902.1/19699&studyListingIndex=0_54dc4a5abeff3c10bd851427baca
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Abstract
How High Are Rates of Return to Fertilizer? Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya
Citation
Duflo, Esther, Michael Kremer and Jonathan Robinson. 2008. "How High Are Rates of Return to Fertilizer? Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya." American Economic Review, 98(2): 482-88.
URL
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.98.2.482

Reports & Other Materials