List Experiment on Recall of 2012 Putin Vote in 2015

All respondents in a sample of adults in the Russian Federation designed to be nationally representative are given a set of four non-sensitive items with which they might agree and an effectively randomly selected half of the sample is given a fifth item with which they might agree, a statement that they had voted for Vladimir Putin in the 2012 presidential election in Russia. All respondents are asked to tell the enumerator a single number that represents the total number of items with which they agree.

2015-06-01

2015-08-21

The outcome variable is a count of the number of items with which each respondent agrees, without knowledge of the specific items that make up this count for any given individual.

The difference in counts between the subsamples with 4 and 5 items in their lists will enable the researcher to estimate the share of the population that sincerely recalls having voted for Vladimir Putin in the 2012 Russian presidential election (the fifth item given to one subsample).

All respondents in a sample of adults in the Russian Federation designed to be nationally representative are given a set of four non-sensitive items with which they might agree and a randomly selected half of the sample is given a fifth item with which they might agree, a statement that they had voted for Vladimir Putin in the 2012 presidential election in Russia. All respondents are asked to tell the enumerator a single number that represents the total number of items with which they agree, without specifying which particular items the respondent affirms.

All respondents in a multi-stage area probability sample* designed to be representative of the Russian Federation population are handed a card with a list of four non-sensitive items:
1. I usually read no fewer than one newspaper or journal in a week;
2. I want to see Russia be a country with a high standard of living;
3. I can name the first name of the chair of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation;
4. I am satisfied with my income level.
A randomly selected half of the sample receives on their card a fifth item, positioned between items 3 and 4 in the list above: "In the last presidential elections of March 4, 2012, I voted for Vladimir Putin."
Respondents are asked: "Think, please, about which of the statements on this card you are prepared to agree with. Do not tell me with which of these you agree and disagree, only tell me the number of statements on the card that you are prepared to agree with. Give your answer in a single number, from 0 to [4/5]."
The enumerators are instructed to record only a single number (or codes for refusal to answer or hard to say).
*Primary sampling units (PSUs) were drawn from thirty-eight strata using probability proportional to size (PPS). Approximately three secondary sampling units (SSUs) were drawn from the thirty-five non-self-representing strata. A complete enumeration of dwellings in each of these sampling units was then made, and on average thirteen households were drawn from each SSU. The Kish procedure was then employed to select one eligible adult from each household. No substitutions were allowed. People institutionalized in prisons, hospitals, and the armed forces were excluded. Also, those living in remote areas or in Chechnya were explicitly excluded in advance.

The survey was conducted using the paper and pencil method. Each questionnaire contained both the control and treatment versions of the question. After receiving them from the printers, the survey contractors divided the questionnaires into two equal piles, circling the control question in one pile and circling the treatment questions in the other pile. The instructions required interviewers to ask only the circled version of the question. Questionnaires for each PSU were then physically assembled by drawing from each pile in alternation (for example, first from the treatment pile, second from the control pile, third from the treatment pile, fourth from the control pile, and so on). Interviewers were instructed to draw questionnaires randomly from the stacks they were given when starting each interview.

Individual

No

0

1,656 adult residents of the Russian Federation

826 control, 828 treatment