Pre-analysis plan: Are voters difference-in-differences estimators? Evidence from experimentally benchmarking recent and longer-term municipal homicide rates in Mexico

Last registered on July 02, 2018
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Pre-analysis plan: Are voters difference-in-differences estimators? Evidence from experimentally benchmarking recent and longer-term municipal homicide rates in Mexico
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003113
Initial registration date
June 28, 2018

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 01, 2018, 10:11 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
July 02, 2018, 5:03 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Mexico
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
John Marshall
Affiliation
Columbia University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2018-06-14
End date
2018-07-31
Keywords
Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
D72, D78, O17
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Drawing inference about incumbent quality or effort from incumbent performance underpins electoral accountability. However, interpreting a performance signal is often complicated by the myriad of unit-specific and period-specific factors beyond the incumbent's control that also influence observable outcomes. Providing voters with benchmarks has the potential to help them to filter the signal from the noise. This project experimentally compares and combines spatial and temporal benchmarks in the context of providing information about recent or longer-term municipal homicide rates across Mexico. Specifically, I assess spatial benchmarks, temporal benchmarks, and a difference-in-differences combination of the two. Leveraging a panel of voters from large municipalities holding municipal elections on July 1, 2018, I examine which benchmarks are most relevant to voters by comparing the effects of different types and combinations of benchmarks on voters' beliefs and self-reported municipal and presidential vote choices, as well as the extent to which voters are able to process benchmarked information---a likely necessary condition for observing any effect.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Marshall, John. 2018. "Pre-analysis plan: Are voters difference-in-differences estimators? Evidence from experimentally benchmarking recent and longer-term municipal homicide rates in Mexico." AEA RCT Registry. July 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3113-2.0
Former Citation
Marshall, John. 2018. "Pre-analysis plan: Are voters difference-in-differences estimators? Evidence from experimentally benchmarking recent and longer-term municipal homicide rates in Mexico." AEA RCT Registry. July 02. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3113/history/31421
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Political accountability is generally regarded as being a central pillar ensuring good governance and its socioeconomic benefits. However, and particularly in developing contexts where governance is weakest, holding politicians to account is challenging for many voters due to their lack of useful information about the actions of their representatives in office. Building on a variety of recent studies examining the effects of information dissemination on electoral, this study focuses on the types of incumbent performance information that influence voters, differentiating recent and longer-term performance and different types of performance benchmark.

I seek to estimate the effects of providing recent v. longer-term information about municipal homicide outcomes on incumbent appraisals and electoral support. To examine the relevance of different types of benchmark, I will compare providing information about each homicide metric with (i) a spatial benchmark (average neighboring municipal administration), (ii) a temporal benchmark (the previous municipal administration), or (iii) a difference-in-differences benchmark. A variety of questions are designed to establish whether the information was understood and illuminate the mechanisms underlying any treatment effects.
Intervention Start Date
2018-06-14
Intervention End Date
2018-06-27

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Vote choice and voter posterior beliefs
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Field experiment randomizing the provision of text-based and infographic municipal homicide data as part of a panel survey conducted around the 2018 Mexican elections. There are 10 treatment conditions, including a pure control, placebo control, 4 factorial benchmarks relating to recent homicide information, and 4 factorial benchmarks relating to longer-term homicide rates under the current municipal administration.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
By computer
Randomization Unit
Individual respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
c.3,000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
In expectation, 300 respondents per treatment arm at baseline, and 200 at endline
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
0.29 at baseline and 0.24 at endline for a comparison between any treatment condition. Lower MDEs after pooling across similar treatment conditions.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Columbia Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2018-06-13
IRB Approval Number
IRB-AAAR9123
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials