Is Russia’s Constitutional Reform Generating a Rally Effect?

Last registered on April 24, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Is Russia’s Constitutional Reform Generating a Rally Effect?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0005758
Initial registration date
April 23, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 24, 2020, 3:01 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
George Washington University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2020-04-24
End date
2020-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study consists of a single randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to assess whether Russia’s ongoing constitutional reform is generating rally effects for Vladimir Putin (and secondarily governors) at the time when a national vote on the amendments was originally scheduled to be held (it has been postponed to an as-yet undefined future date). It is conducted as part of a nationally representative telephone survey of about 1600 adult residents of Russia in late April 2020.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hale, Henry. 2020. "Is Russia’s Constitutional Reform Generating a Rally Effect?." AEA RCT Registry. April 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.5758-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The RCT involves 40% of the sample of 1600 respondents (so approximately N=640), randomly dividing this 40% into 2 groups of about 320 each. The first group serves as a control and is not asked the first question in the trial at all. The other (treatment) group receives a question that asks people to reflect on the constitutional amendments Putin has initiated and is asked to say how closely they are following news related to the constitutional changes.
Intervention Start Date
2020-04-24
Intervention End Date
2020-04-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes of interest are four-point agree-disagree scales on three statements of support for Russia’s political leadership.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The larger outcome of interest is the difference in patterns of responses between the control group, on the one hand, and the treatment group, on the other.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment (full text attached to this registry) is embedded in the regular “omnibus” survey of Russia’s highly reputable Levada-Center agency. The sample is selected through a probability sampling method with random digit dialing (RDD) to generate mobile phone numbers within the fixed range of prefixes and numbers functional in Russia proportionally to each federal district. The total coverage of the target population is 97 percent by the mobile frame sample. No socio-demographic quotas are used. It will include about 1600 residents of Russia age 18 or older. Interviews will be conducted by phone using the CATI method.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization in the assignment of respondents to control and treatment groups is achieved through the randomization function in Levada’s survey software.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1600 adult residents of Russia
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
There will be approximately 320 in the control group and 320 in the treatment group, with both groups being drawn randomly from the larger sample of 1600.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
George Washington University
IRB Approval Date
2020-04-22
IRB Approval Number
NCR031629
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials