Improving Risk Assessment and Treatment Choice in Medical Decision Making

Last registered on June 26, 2022


Trial Information

General Information

Improving Risk Assessment and Treatment Choice in Medical Decision Making
Initial registration date
June 23, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 26, 2022, 5:27 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.



Primary Investigator


Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

In development
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Physicians often face situations in which they must predict patients’ health outcomes under uncertainty. Existing decision tools are based on prediction models derived from clinical data, but typically include only a small set of known risk factors. In clinical practice, physicians often observe additional risk factors and patient characteristics which may improve their risk assessment. By performing an online experiment, we
explore a new risk assessment tool that allows physicians to combine their clinical experience and their assessment of a patient’s risk factors with the predictions of a decision tool in a structured way. In doing so, we aim to investigate the behavior of physicians in risk assessment and treatment selection.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Hartung, Corinna et al. 2022. "Improving Risk Assessment and Treatment Choice in Medical Decision Making." AEA RCT Registry. June 26.
Experimental Details


Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
accuracy in risk prediction, confidence in risk assessment and treatment choice
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Physicians (cardiologists and general practitioners) are randomly drawn into one of four treatment groups that differ with respect to the provided decision tool. After subjects are randomly assigned to a treatment group, the survey starts with a questionnaire eliciting information on subjects’ socio-demographic, educational and job characteristics. In the subsequent part of the survey, subjects first assess a vignette’s risk and then, make treatment recommendations. The exact procedure depends on the treatment group. The survey ends with a short questionnaire asking subjects to report about prior knowledge and use of a specific risk assessment tool partly provided in the survey.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization is done within cardiologists and general practicioners (different surveys); it is done automatically by the survey software
Randomization Unit
Individual physicians
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
400 physicians (200 cardiologists, 200 general practicioners)
Sample size: planned number of observations
400 physicians (200 cardiologists, 200 general practicioners)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 per treatment group (4 treatment groups)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics Committee Economics Department LMU Munich
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number


Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Is the intervention completed?
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials