What is the value of early response? Multi-country RCT of shock-responsive cash transfers in the Sahel

Last registered on January 24, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
What is the value of early response? Multi-country RCT of shock-responsive cash transfers in the Sahel
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010097
Initial registration date
September 20, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 27, 2022, 11:35 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 24, 2023, 4:49 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region
Region
Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Oxford

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
World Bank
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford
PI Affiliation
World Bank
PI Affiliation
World Bank
PI Affiliation
World Bank

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-01-15
End date
2026-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Shocks such as extreme weather events are becoming more intense and more frequent with climate change, with well-documented long-lasting implications for welfare and poverty. However, ex-post responses to such shocks are typically provided at the height of food insecurity during the agricultural lean season and often reach households late. More recently, several governments and humanitarian actors are experimenting with early response interventions based on rapidly available satellite-based triggers to strengthen households’ ability to manage shocks, such as through shock-responsive cash transfers. Such approaches are at the core of efforts to build adaptive social protection systems.

This study coordinates a multi-country randomized control trial (RCT) in the Sahel to assess the value of early response and evaluate the impact of the timing of cash transfers in mitigating the negative effects of extreme drought on household welfare. The study is integrated in the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program managed by the World Bank and implemented in close coordination with government agencies across the Sahel. We test the relative effectiveness of early responses to drought (providing temporary cash transfers after the weather shock but before its peak effect on household food security and welfare) versus the traditional response to drought (providing temporary cash transfers at the peak of the food insecurity crisis).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bossuroy, Thomas et al. 2023. "What is the value of early response? Multi-country RCT of shock-responsive cash transfers in the Sahel." AEA RCT Registry. January 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10097-1.1
Sponsors & Partners

Sponsors

Partner

Type
none
URL
Type
none
URL
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The study assesses the value of early response by evaluating modalities of shock-responsive social protection programmes that deliver cash transfers either early or later during the lean season. These programmes are being implemented by governments in the countries of interest. They are targeted to geographical areas hit by failures in the rainy season identified through satellite-based triggers. Social protection is expanded to these areas to mitigate the worst impacts of failed rains on welfare insecurity the following year, and in particular during the next lean season.

We test the impact of timing across three cash transfer interventions:

T1. “Early cash transfers” entail cash transfers delivered in advance of the lean season.

T2. “Late cash transfers” entail cash transfers delivered during the lean season.

T3. “Early and late cash transfers” entail cash transfers delivered both before and during the lean season.

In total, the cash transfers amount to roughly 10 to 15% of annual household consumption. The total value of the cash transfers is the same across the three modalities. T1 and T2 entail relatively larger cash transfers, but fewer payments, compared to T3, which entails relatively smaller cash transfers, but more payments.

Households are targeted based on their baseline vulnerability ahead of all three interventions, either through a PMT score, community-based targeting, or a combination of both. Households receive cash transfers, but no additional messaging about drought response.
Intervention Start Date
2022-03-01
Intervention End Date
2024-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Household food security, as proxied by the food consumption score
2. Subjective well-being, as proxied by Cantril’s ladder of life satisfaction
3. Household food consumption
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
1. Food security: Food consumption score calculated using the number of days in the past week the household consumed major food categories (e.g. maize, tubers, fish, eggs, vegetables, etc.). The final score is the weighted sum of these counts. We measure food security in each survey round, including the high-frequency surveys, midline and endline.

2. Subjective well-being, as proxied by Cantril’s ladder of life satisfaction. We measure subjective well-being in each survey round, including the high-frequency surveys, midline and endline.

3. Household food consumption: We measure self-reported consumption (including expenditure and consumption from own production and gifts) over a standard reference period for a comprehensive list of food goods. We measure household food consumption at midline and endline.

Please see the pre-analysis plan for more details on variable construction.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Please see the pre-analysis plan for more details on secondary outcomes.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We aim to measure the impact of the timing of cash transfers on the welfare impact of an extreme drought. In each country, communes/districts will be selected based on their exposure to an extreme weather event. Selected villages within communes/districts will be randomized into three groups:

T1. “Early cash transfers” entail cash transfers delivered in advance of the lean season.

T2. “Late cash transfers” entail cash transfers delivered during the lean season.

T3. “Early and late cash transfers” entail cash transfers delivered both before and during the lean season.

Households will receive the cash transfers and will be targeted based on their baseline vulnerability. Eligible households for all three treatments will be pre-identified at the same time before the start of the first treatment arm. The total value of the cash transfers will be kept constant across the three treatment arms.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization will be carried out in an office with a computer using STATA.
Randomization Unit
Smallest possible admin level (e.g. village or community or neighbourhood)
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
160-180 villages
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,000-4,500 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Treatment 1 (early cash transfers): 1330 to 1500
Treatment 2 (late cash transfers): 1330 to 1500
Treatment 3 (early and late cash transfers): 1330 to 1500
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
With 56 villages per treatment arm and 23 households per village (1333 households per treatment arm), we are powered to measure a 11.7% increase in daily food consumption, from a baseline mean of 1.66, standard deviation of 0.921 and intra-cluster correlation of 0.12.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
CUREC
IRB Approval Date
2022-01-04
IRB Approval Number
ECONCIA21-22-25
Analysis Plan

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