Does adaptation to climate change alter migration intentions? A discrete choice experiment in Senegal

Last registered on September 27, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Does adaptation to climate change alter migration intentions? A discrete choice experiment in Senegal
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010112
Initial registration date
September 22, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 27, 2022, 11:45 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Senegal
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Ashwini Dabadge
Affiliation
RWI-Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Maximiliane Sievert
PI Affiliation
RWI-Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-08-01
End date
2024-12-31
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
Climate change adaptation, migration
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Exposure to climate change related weather shocks is often considered an important driver of internal and international migration. We evaluate whether alternative strategies to adapt to these shocks mitigate migration intentions of individuals through a discrete choice experiment. Individuals are presented with a hypothetical prolonged drought situation and afterwards with a randomly assigned adaptation solution. By assessing responses before and after the assignment of the adaptation strategies, we will measure the impact of climate change adaptation on migration intentions and comparison across individuals will inform about the relative effectiveness of each strategy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dabadge, Ashwini and Maximiliane Sievert. 2022. "Does adaptation to climate change alter migration intentions? A discrete choice experiment in Senegal." AEA RCT Registry. September 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10112-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
The intervention is a discrete choice experiment, embedded into a large cross-sectional survey investigating climate change, social networks, and migration across 145 villages in rural Senegal. A village chief survey and a full household listing has been implemented between mid-July and August 10th 2022. A random sample of around 4350 individuals in 145 villages has been selected for face-to-face interviews to collect information on socio-economic situation, migration history, migration intentions and adaptation strategies of households and individuals.

Individuals will be asked whether they intend to migrate outside their village, either within Senegal or outside Senegal. They will then be asked to imagine a hypothetical prolonged drought situation for the next three years, where harvest is half of what it is in normal years. Individuals will be asked again about their migration intentions. Subsequently, individuals we be randomly presented with one of the following four hypothetical adaptation scenarios:
i. An irrigation system is installed in the village
ii. Drought resistant seeds are provided to farmers
iii. Non-agricultural employment opportunities emerge
iv. Drought relief is provided to households in the form of food or cash assistance

Individuals will be asked about their migration intentions once again.
Intervention Start Date
2022-08-01
Intervention End Date
2022-10-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Migration intention
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The intervention is a discrete choice experiment designed as a randomized control trial in random sample of around 4350 individuals in 145 villages. The sample is representative for rural villages in Senegal and has a focus on the regions of Matam, Kaolack, and Sedhiou. Individuals will be randomly assigned to one of the four treatment arms, which indicate hypothetical adaptation scenarios:

i. An irrigation system is installed in the village
ii. Drought resistant seeds are provided to farmers
iii. Non-agricultural employment opportunities emerge
iv. Drought relief is provided to households in the form of food or cash assistance
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
4350
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1087 adaptation through irrigation, 1087: adaptation through drought resistant seeds, 1087: adaptation through non-agricultural employment, 1087: adaptation through drought relief
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Columbia University MS IRB
IRB Approval Date
2022-07-12
IRB Approval Number
IRB-AAAU2150
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials