Partition dependent probability judgments in soccer: A natural field experiment

Last registered on November 03, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Partition dependent probability judgments in soccer: A natural field experiment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010125
Initial registration date
October 20, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 31, 2022, 3:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
November 03, 2022, 5:43 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Christian Zihlmann
Affiliation
University of Fribourg
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-10-27
End date
2026-01-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Please refer to the PAP (attached)
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Zihlmann, Christian. 2022. "Partition dependent probability judgments in soccer: A natural field experiment." AEA RCT Registry. November 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10125-1.1
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
See PAP attached
Intervention Start Date
2022-10-27
Intervention End Date
2022-11-18

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Probablity judgements of two subevents and/or one single event (describing the union of the two subevents)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
See PAP
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
See PAP

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
See PAP attached
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters, thus number of clusters=number of observations.
Approx 450 individuals.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approx 450 individuals.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Around 225 individuals per treatment.
Accounting for unequal groups, the experimental group with the lower number of observations is estimated to have 210 participants/individuals.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See PAP for details (attached). With the sample size target of 210 individuals per treatment arm, and a power of 80%, I will be able to identify a standardized effect size of .274 with a two-sided t test at the 5% level.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB of the Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences of the University of Fribourg, Switzerland
IRB Approval Date
2022-10-26
IRB Approval Number
Application No. 2022-10-02
Analysis Plan

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