Overconfidence and Biased Beliefs in Gig Economy Jobs

Last registered on February 25, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Overconfidence and Biased Beliefs in Gig Economy Jobs
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010144
Initial registration date
September 29, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 03, 2022, 5:36 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
February 25, 2025, 5:38 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Pedro Pires
Affiliation
Nova School of Business and Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2022-04-01
End date
2024-09-30
Keywords
Behavior, Labor
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Pay and work hours fluctuate from month to month in many jobs. A particular case -- growing in popularity over time -- is gig jobs on online platforms. Variation in job outcomes is not a problem as long as workers can, on average, understand and predict them accurately. As a result of limited attention or cognitive capacity, or a desire for self-deception, workers may persistently hold inaccurate beliefs that lead to inefficient labor supply decisions. We first test, over three surveys, whether gig workers understand their job outcomes by collecting data on their beliefs and actual job outcomes, such as pay, hours and expenses. We then conduct an experimental randomized information treatment, in which half of workers in our sample receive information about their mistakes in understanding their take home pay. We measure effects over time on both beliefs and labor market decisions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Pires, Pedro. 2025. "Overconfidence and Biased Beliefs in Gig Economy Jobs." AEA RCT Registry. February 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10144-1.3
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In our randomized information treatment, workers receives information on whether they are correctly assessing their take home hourly pay, are given an individualized example on how to calculate expenses and are told that overconfidence is common in many settings. Workers in the treatment group receive this information on the Baseline and Midline surveys. Workers in the control group receives the same information at the end of the Endline survey.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2022-04-01
Intervention End Date
2022-11-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Job outcomes: hours worked, hourly and weekly pay, expenses
Other labor market variables: job search and information on other jobs
Beliefs of job outcomes for oneself and for other workers: hours worked, hourly and weekly pay, expenses
Misperception of job outcomes: difference between beliefs and actual outcomes
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
See pre-analysis plan for more details
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Simple randomization
Randomization Unit
Randomization at the worker level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
Between 400 and 600 workers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Between 200 and 300 for each of the treatment and control groups
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee for Protection of Human Subjects (CPHS), UC Berkeley
IRB Approval Date
2020-09-20
IRB Approval Number
2020-09-13677
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Analysis plan

MD5: 18b948dc94b412f518c512b5bf217d1a

SHA1: 916b7bfc9ef481fa0744bf1c462d6f5044c6bce2

Uploaded At: September 29, 2022

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
December 31, 2022, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
December 31, 2022, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials