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Field
Abstract
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Before
Focusing on the 2022 Brazilian presidential election, I study how an election result can affect people's views, attitudes, and preferences. I collect more than 5,000 respondents during a 6-weeks window that goes from before the elections' first-round to after the elections' second-round. The 2022 Brazilian elections are being very polarizing and uncertain. By exploiting respondents' expectations of the election results and recontacting them right after the final result, I will manage to identify how the election's results affect people views, attitudes, and preferences. More precisely, the main outcomes are going to be respondents' perceptions of what people think, their affective polarization, and their trust towards the government are affected, and then how these effects might translate in a shift in policy preferences, distinguishing between economic and moral policies. I also elicit respondents' exposure and belief of fake news to then explore how this might affect polarization levels. Finally, with a randomized experiment conducted in the last wave, I will test how recalling previous views affect your current views.
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After
Focusing on the 2022 Brazilian presidential election, I study how an election result can affect people's views, attitudes, and preferences. I collect more than 5,000 respondents during a 6-weeks window that goes from before the elections' first-round to after the elections' second-round. The 2022 Brazilian elections are being very polarizing and uncertain. By exploiting respondents' expectations of the election results and recontacting them right after the final result, I will manage to identify how the election's results affect people views, attitudes, and preferences. More precisely, the main outcomes are going to be respondents' perceptions of what people think, their affective polarization, and their trust towards the government are affected, and then how these effects might translate in a shift in policy preferences, distinguishing between economic and moral policies. I also elicit respondents' exposure and belief of fake news to then explore how this might affect polarization levels. In an additional wave conducted one year after the election, I conduct an experiment to identify the effect of providing good or bad news about the economy on the expectations about the country and attitudes towards violence and democracy.
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Trial End Date
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Before
September 30, 2023
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After
October 31, 2023
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Last Published
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Before
March 18, 2023 06:08 PM
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After
September 22, 2023 05:22 PM
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Field
Intervention (Public)
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Before
In Wave 4 and in the recontacts of Wave 3, the order of some questions are going to be randomized.
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After
In Wave 4 and in the recontacts of Wave 3, the order of some questions are going to be randomized.
In Wave 6, I randomly assign respondents to one of two treatments (plus control group) with information on the Brazilian economy.
Respondents are also randomized between two different orders of the questions.
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Intervention End Date
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Before
November 05, 2022
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After
September 30, 2023
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Primary Outcomes (End Points)
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Before
Perceptions of what people think, affective polarization, trust towards the government, preferences for economic policies, preferences for moral policies.
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After
Perceptions of what people think, affective polarization, trust towards the government, preferences for economic policies, preferences for moral policies.
Attitudes towards violence and democracy, expectations about Brazil.
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Field
Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
Perceptions of what people think: share of people in your city supporting a given candidate, share of Brazilians who are a strong supporter of a given candidate.
Affective polarization: difference in feeling thermometer for both candidates and both candidates' supporters, how comfortable being friend of a supporter of a given candidate, how comfortable having son/daughter marrying supporter of a given candidate.
Preferences for economic policies: index built aggregating support for government intervention, higher taxes on the rich, increase expenditure on various welfare programs.
Preferences for moral policies: index built aggregating support for same-sex marriage, same-sex parents adoption, abortion, gun ownership, drug liberalization, environmental policies.
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After
Perceptions of what people think: share of people in your city supporting a given candidate, share of Brazilians who are a strong supporter of a given candidate.
Affective polarization: difference in feeling thermometer for both candidates and both candidates' supporters, how comfortable being friend of a supporter of a given candidate, how comfortable having son/daughter marrying supporter of a given candidate.
Preferences for economic policies: index built aggregating support for government intervention, higher taxes on the rich, increase expenditure on various welfare programs.
Preferences for moral policies: index built aggregating support for same-sex marriage, same-sex parents adoption, abortion, gun ownership, drug liberalization, environmental policies.
Attitudes towards violence: questions on whether violence is acceptable to express disagreement with the government, likelihood of participating in violent protests, support for January 8 attacks.
Attitudes towards democracy: questions on preferred form of government, support for a military coup.
Expectations about Brazil: ask about the economy, inflation, employment, inequality, criminality, political polarization.
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Experimental Design (Public)
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Before
I will exploit the election result of the second-round Brazilian elections as a treatment on those respondents that I will contact before and after the election result. To ensure variability of the treatment, I will exploit various characteristics of the respondents. Previous waves are going to allow me to test for pre-trends.
Within the survey, I also design a memory treatment where the order of certain questions is randomized. I will be able to test whether remembering what answered in the previous week is going to affect your current beliefs.
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After
I will exploit the election result of the second-round Brazilian elections as a treatment on those respondents that I will contact before and after the election result. To ensure variability of the treatment, I will exploit various characteristics of the respondents. Previous waves are going to allow me to test for pre-trends.
Within the survey, I also design a memory treatment where the order of certain questions is randomized. I will be able to test whether remembering what answered in the previous week is going to affect your current beliefs.
In Wave 6, I randomly assign respondents to two different treatments to see the effect on news about the economy on their expectations and attitudes towards violence and democracy. I also randomize the order of this latter two blocks to test whether just thinking about the future of the country makes people change views about democracy and violence.
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Planned Number of Clusters
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Before
1,200 respondents for Wave 1
500 respondents for Wave 2
2,000 respondents for Wave 3
Around 700 recontacts from Wave 3
1,000 respondents for Wave 4
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After
1,200 respondents for Wave 1
500 respondents for Wave 2
2,000 respondents for Wave 3
Around 700 recontacts from Wave 3
1,000 respondents for Wave 4
3,000 respondents for Wave 6
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Planned Number of Observations
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Before
1,200 respondents for Wave 1
500 respondents for Wave 2
2,000 respondents for Wave 3
Around 700 recontacts from Wave 3
1,000 respondents for Wave 4
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After
1,200 respondents for Wave 1
500 respondents for Wave 2
2,000 respondents for Wave 3
Around 700 recontacts from Wave 3
1,000 respondents for Wave 4
3,000 respondents for Wave 6
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Field
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
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Before
Around 350 controls and around 350 treated among recontacts of Wave 3
500 controls and 500 treated among respondents of Wave 4
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After
Around 350 controls and around 350 treated among recontacts of Wave 3
500 controls and 500 treated among respondents of Wave 4
For Wave 6:
500 controls, questions on expectations about Brazil first.
500 controls, questions on democracy and violence first.
500 treated with positive news about the economy, questions on expectations about Brazil first.
500 treated with positive news about the economy, questions on democracy and violence first.
500 treated with negative news about the economy, questions on expectations about Brazil first.
500 treated with negative news about the economy, questions on democracy and violence first.
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Intervention (Hidden)
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Before
In Wave 4 and in the recontacts of Wave 3, I randomize the order on which certain questions are asked. Some respondents will first be asked what their views where the previous week before being asked what their current views are, other respondents the other way around.
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After
In Wave 4 and in the recontacts of Wave 3, I randomize the order on which certain questions are asked. Some respondents will first be asked what their views were the previous week before being asked what their current views are, other respondents the other way around.
In Wave 6, one-third of respondents are going to see a video providing good news about the economy (inflation rate decreasing in the first months of 2023), another third are going to see a video providing bad news about the economy (average income stagnating in the first months of 2023), and the final third won't see any video.
After the treatment, half of the respondents are going to answer the questions on expectations about Brazil first, and then questions on democracy and violence. The other half will instead first answer questions on democracy and violence, and then questions on expectations about Brazil.
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