What Encourages Returning Citizens to Vote? Measuring the Impact of Different Forms of Voter Outreach in Washington

Last registered on October 17, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
What Encourages Returning Citizens to Vote? Measuring the Impact of Different Forms of Voter Outreach in Washington
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010199
Initial registration date
October 10, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 17, 2022, 5:14 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
Washington

Primary Investigator

Name
Neel Sukhatme
Affiliation
Georgetown University Law Center
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Alexander Billy
PI Affiliation
Free Our Vote
Contact Investigator
PI Name
JJ Naddeo
PI Affiliation
Georgetown University
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-10-12
End date
2022-11-08
Keywords
Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Electoral
Additional Keywords
felony disenfranchisement, voter registration, voter turnout, mailer, Facebook, social media, SMS, text message
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Currently, twenty-six states bar some individuals from voting, simply on the basis of their past felony convictions. On April 7, 2021, the State of Washington enacted law HB 1078, which fully restored voting rights to Washingtonians with past convictions upon release from prison. Despite this recent change in law, uncertainty for many potential beneficiaries about eligibility, paired with the fact that voting illegally in Washington can carry a punishment of up to 5 years of imprisonment and/or a $10,000 fine, may cause many individuals with prior felonies to not embrace their newly obtained opportunity to vote. Accordingly, voter turnout among this population can likely be bolstered by targeted information campaigns. This project aims to measure how outreach using social media impacts voter registration and turnout, among a population likely already treated with traditional mailers and other voter outreach efforts.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Billy, Alexander, JJ Naddeo and Neel Sukhatme. 2022. "What Encourages Returning Citizens to Vote? Measuring the Impact of Different Forms of Voter Outreach in Washington." AEA RCT Registry. October 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10199-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
On April 7, 2021, the State of Washington enacted HB 1078, which fully restored voting rights to Washingtonians with past convictions upon release from prison. Despite this recent change in law, uncertainty for many potential beneficiaries about eligibility, paired with the fact that voting illegally in Washington can carry a punishment of up to 5 years of imprisonment and/or a $10,000 fine, may cause many individuals with prior felonies to not embrace their newly obtained opportunity to vote. Accordingly, voter turnout among this population can likely be bolstered by targeted information campaigns.

This project aims to measure how outreach using social media impacts voter registration and turnout, among a population likely already treated with traditional mailers and other voter outreach efforts. Specifically, we are measuring the impact of using Meta (Facebook and Instagram outreach) that provides information and directs eligible individuals to a voter registration website.
Intervention Start Date
2022-10-12
Intervention End Date
2022-11-08

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The attached pre-analysis plan provides more details. Brief overview:
--Differences in voter registration rates across different treatments in 2022 general election, as compared to one another as well as a pure control
--Differences in turnout rates across treatment groups in 2022 general election, as compared to one another as well as a pure control
--We will also analyze (most likely to be included in a subsequent work product) the long-run impacts of our intervention on future elections, particularly the 2024 primary and general elections.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We have obtained a full list of individuals who benefited from the change in law in Washington in 2022. We have split these participants into a treatment group (receives Meta ads) and control group (no Meta ads). All participants will receive targeted mailers; hence, our intervention should be understood to measure the marginal impact of social media campaigns on voter registration and turnout for individuals already treated with traditional mailer campaigns. More details on all of this are described in our pre-analysis plan.

We are scheduled to send out notifications to these individuals by early to mid-October 2022. We will collect data on voter turnout and voter registration as soon as it is available, likely before January 2023. Analyses will be conducted sometime between that time and March 2023.
In addition, we will collect data on voter turnout and voter registration for future elections in Washington, in particular the 2024 primary and general elections. Depending on timing, analysis of such results might be included in the same paper as that which analyzes the 2022 election, or it might be included in a future paper; alternatively, it might be simply posted in a forum online.

This project will be conducted in accordance with the best practices to date associated with randomized-control trials. It will contribute to a growing corpus of research that aims at uncovering the impact of voter restoration programs and advocacy efforts in the same space.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
To ensure that treatment arms are properly balanced across observable characteristics, we implemented a blocked or stratified randomization procedure. Operationally, we use the Python package stochatreat that allows for stratified randomization of any number of treatment arms.
Randomization Unit
Individual, stratified randomization procedure. We block randomize on the following:
1. Race/ethnicity (indicator variables)
2. Age (numeric)
3. Gender (binary variable)
4. Pre-treatment voter registration status (binary variable)
5. City where previously registered to vote (indicator variables)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
26,297 total eligible participants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Treatment (receives Meta ad + mailer) -- 13,200
Control (receives only mailer) -- 13,097
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See attached pre-analysis plan.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Georgetown University Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2022-08-22
IRB Approval Number
STUDY00004978
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials