Insincere Belief: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan

Last registered on November 17, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Insincere Belief: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010401
Initial registration date
November 11, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 17, 2022, 3:44 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Pakistan
Region
South Asia

Primary Investigator

Name
Sultan Mehmood
Affiliation
New Economic School Moscow
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Bakhtawar Ali
PI Affiliation
AMSE
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PI Name
Shaheen Naseer
PI Affiliation
Lahore School of Economics
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PI Name
Daniel Chen
PI Affiliation
Toulouse School of Economics
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-01-01
End date
2022-01-02
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
dishonesty, religion
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
How can we detect insincere religious beliefs? Can thought leaders change behavior that is not detectable self-reported answers? We hope to answer these questions, by conducting a field experiment in Pakistan. We combine an objective measure of Ramadan fasting observance and compare it with self-reported intention to fast in Ramadan to examine if conservative and liberal Imams differentially impact actual and intended fasting behavior. We conduct a randomized evaluation in Pakistan where individuals are exposed to conservative and liberal imams who encourage and discourage individuals to fast in Ramadan, respectively by offering a different interpretation of fasting in Ramadan. Specifically, we randomly assign 607 individuals into three treatment arms with 202 assigned the conservative treatment, 202 the liberal treatment and 203 the placebo message. We investigate whether these messaging impact their stated and actual Ramadan fasting behavior.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ali, Bakhtawar et al. 2022. "Insincere Belief: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan." AEA RCT Registry. November 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10401-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The first treatment group involves the individuals watching a prominent thought leader in Pakistan (Javed Ahmed Ghamdi) providing a liberal interpretation of the Quranic verses discussing Ramadan fasting. He explicitly encourages all Muslims to postpone fasting, argues that fasting can be postponed in Ramadan both for personal and external reasons, for instance due to the personality or “temperament” of a person or due to external circumstances such as weather and other inconveniences such as travel. Our second treatment group involves the participants watching a prominent thought leader in Pakistan (Tariq Jamil) providing a conservative interpretation of Quranic verses prescribing fasting. He explicitly encourages all Muslims “not to miss a single fast in the month of Ramadan come what may”. In the control group, subjects watched a video describing facts and statistics about the Pakistani economy. To maximize the retention and comprehension, we utilized recent advances in pedagogy through the use of social-emotional learning, with the individuals completing two writing exercises: a 100 word essay summarizing the message and another essay on how they may apply the lessons to their lives. They then engage in a structured discussion on the main messages provided in their treatment group.
Intervention Start Date
2021-01-01
Intervention End Date
2022-01-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Outcomes Variables. —The first and main variable will be cortisol concentration in blood plasma measured in Ramadan. This will be our proxy for actual fasting in month of Ramadan. Second, we will ask individuals to report whether they fasted to measure self-reported fasting. We will standardize these variables to mean zero and standard deviation one. The third outcome concern measuring lying in a die rolling game.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conduct a randomized evaluation in Pakistan where individuals are exposed to conservative and liberal imams who encourage and discourage individuals to fast in Ramadan, respectively by offering a different interpretation of fasting in Ramadan. Specifically, we randomly assign 607 individuals into three treatment arms with 202 assigned the conservative treatment, 202 the liberal treatment and 203 the placebo message.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization by computer.
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
600
Sample size: planned number of observations
600
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 per treatment arm (including control)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Pre-Analysis Plan
Document Type
other
Document Description
Pre-Analysis Plan
File
Pre-Analysis Plan

MD5: c0fca46a6c00439f7e6e15d4d68ada48

SHA1: 7c31394c792ce516e3207eb59c18042ebfcc95d5

Uploaded At: November 11, 2022

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Lahore School of Economics Ethical Review Board
IRB Approval Date
Details not available
IRB Approval Number
Details not available
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Pre-Analysis Plan

MD5: c0fca46a6c00439f7e6e15d4d68ada48

SHA1: 7c31394c792ce516e3207eb59c18042ebfcc95d5

Uploaded At: November 11, 2022

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials