Monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations

Last registered on January 03, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010620
Initial registration date
December 10, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 03, 2023, 11:19 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2022-12-12
End date
2022-12-17
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine how monetary policy influences macroeconomic expectations of experts. We run two large-scale international surveys among economic experts and exploit the effects of announcements of key interest rates on inflation rates and economic growth expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gr√ľndler, Klaus et al. 2023. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations." AEA RCT Registry. January 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10620-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We examine how monetary policy influences macroeconomic expectations of experts. We run two large-scale international surveys among economic experts and exploit the effects of announcements of key interest rates on inflation rates and economic growth expectations.
Intervention Start Date
2022-12-14
Intervention End Date
2022-12-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
expectations on inflation rates and GDP growth
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We examine how monetary policy influences macroeconomic expectations of experts. We run two large-scale international surveys among economic experts and exploit the effects of announcements of key interest rates on inflation rates and economic growth expectations.
Experimental Design Details
We examine how monetary policy influences macroeconomic expectations of ex-perts. We run two large-scale international surveys among economic experts and exploit the effects of announcements of key interest rates for the United States and Canada and the Eurozone on inflation rates and economic growth expectations. Surveying experts just before and after the announcements allows for causal inference. Our survey elicits expectations about inflation rates and GDP growth for the years 2023 (short-term expectations), 2024 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (longer-term expectations). We conduct this survey both for an announcement of the Federal Re-serve as well as for the ECB. We randomly split participants in two groups. The first group will be contacted in the first wave between 12 December 2022 and 14 Decem-ber 2022, two days before the press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The second wave contacts experts between 14 December 2022 and 16 December 2022, two days after the press conference of the FOMC. Our second exper-iment surveys around 300 experts working in the Eurozone. The first wave addressing the Eurozone experts will be implemented between 13 December 2022 and 15 De-cember 2022, two days before the press conference of the European Central Bank (ECB) council. The second wave conducted between 15 December 2022 and 17 De-cember 2022, two days after the press conference of the ECB council. The treatment is the central bank announcements i.e., the decisions of the FOMC and the ECB coun-cils. To account for confounding events, we would like to estimate within-day chang-es by considering only those respondents who participated at the day of the announcement.

Our first hypothesis for the full sample of experts is that the announcement of an (or higher-than-expected) increase in key interest rates decreases the expected inflation rate and the expected growth rate.

Our sample of experts consists of economists working in all fields of economics. Hence, we suspect treatment heterogeneity across fields, hypothesizing that experts who work in the field of macroeconomics and monetary economics have distinct expectations about the monetary policy decisions to be announced on the press con-ferences of the FOMC on the 14 December 2022 and the ECB council on 15 December. The expectations are portrayed, for example, by Bloomberg. The FED and the ECB are expected to further increase interest rates. Our second hypothesis is that treated ex-perts expect lower inflation rates than non-treated experts, when the interest rates increases are higher than expected (and vice versa). Relatedly, our third hypothesis is that the treatment effects are lower for experts working in the field of macroeconom-ics and monetary economics. For experts outside of these fields, a potential increase in interest rates provides more fundamentally new information compared to experts in macroeconomics and monetary economics.

Our survey also includes open-ended questions that elicit the narratives and subjec-tive macroeconomic models of respondents behind the numbers reported. We ask experts to elaborate on channels of the treatment effects. We use answers to these questions to examine the channels underlying a potential treatment effect identified in our design. We expect that treated experts are more likely to report that central banks are important for current and future inflation. We also explore whether treat-ment effects are conditional on the perceived drivers of inflation. Our fourth hypoth-esis is that the negative treatment effects of monetary policy on expected inflation rates are larger for respondents that perceive demand-side effects to be responsible for current inflation rates than for respondents who perceive supply-side effects to be dominant.


Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
experts
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
130 experts in the United States and Canada (expected number of respondents)
300 experts in the Eurozone (expected number of respondents)

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
65 control experts in the United States and Canada
65 treated experts in the United States and Canada
150 control experts in the Eurozone
150 treated experts in the Eurozone
Sample size: planned number of observations
130 experts in the United States and Canada (expected number of respondents) 300 experts in the Eurozone (expected number of respondents) Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms 65 control experts in the United States and Canada 65 treated experts in the United States and Canada 150 control experts in the Eurozone 150 treated experts in the Eurozone
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
130 experts in the United States and Canada (expected number of respondents)
300 experts in the Eurozone (expected number of respondents)

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
65 control experts in the United States and Canada
65 treated experts in the United States and Canada
150 control experts in the Eurozone
150 treated experts in the Eurozone
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials