Testing what works to accelerate varietal turnover: An experiment in Kenya

Last registered on January 03, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Testing what works to accelerate varietal turnover: An experiment in Kenya
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010651
Initial registration date
December 31, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 03, 2023, 5:24 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Kenya
Region
Western (Busia, Bungoma)
Country
Kenya
Region
Lower Eastern (Machakos, Makueni)
Country
Kenya
Region
Upper Eastern (Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi)

Primary Investigator

Name
Berber Kramer
Affiliation
International Food Policy Research Institute
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Carly Trachtman
PI Affiliation
International Food Policy Research Institute
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PI Name
Francesco Cecchi
PI Affiliation
Wageningen University & Research
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PI Name
Carol Waweru
PI Affiliation
International Food Policy Research Institute
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PI Name
Benjamin Kivuva
PI Affiliation
Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization
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PI Name
Lilian Waithaka
PI Affiliation
ACRE Africa
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-09-01
End date
2023-12-31
Keywords
Agriculture, Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Gender
Additional Keywords
Technology adoption, Consumer preferences
JEL code(s)
Q12, Q16, O33, D13, C93
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The turnover of improved crop varieties among smallholder farmers has been slow, and little is known about the drivers of varietal replacement and product substitution. Such low varietal turnover limits the extent to which investments in crop breeding programs can contribute to achieving the sustainable development goals. This cluster randomized trial, implemented in seven counties in Kenya, will therefore generate behavioral intelligence on what drives farmers', consumers' and private-sector decisions to adopt new varieties. Specifically, we will test whether varietal turnover can be accelerated through four interventions:
1) Providing trial packs of new varieties, to provide farmers with the opportunity to test new varieties at a lower cost (randomized at the village level, with additional randomization within villages in terms of who receives trial packs);
2) Providing personalized advisory services, to alleviate information constraints on how to cultivate these new varieties (randomized at the village level, with additional randomization within villages in terms of who is targeted with advisories);
3) Providing agricultural insurance subsidies, to reduce the financial risk associated with investing in more expensive seeds (randomized at the farmer level, within villages); and
4) Targeting the same set of farmers with a consumer-oriented intervention that addresses factors related to the taste, texture, nutritious value or other consumer-related characteristics of the final product associated with a new variety (randomized at the village level).

The trial is implemented in 160 villages spread across seven counties in Kenya, with 40 farmers per village recruited into the study. Results are expected to be available by December 2024.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Cecchi, Francesco et al. 2023. "Testing what works to accelerate varietal turnover: An experiment in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. January 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10651-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will test whether the adoption of new varieties can be accelerated through four interventions:
1) Providing trial packs of new varieties, to provide farmers with the opportunity to test new varieties at a lower cost;
2) Providing personalized advisory services, to alleviate information constraints on how to cultivate these new varieties;
3) Providing agricultural insurance subsidies, to reduce the financial risk associated with investing in more expensive seeds; and
4) Targeting the same set of farmers with a consumer-oriented intervention that addresses factors related to the taste, texture, nutritious value or other consumer-related characteristics of the final product associated with a new variety.
Intervention Start Date
2022-09-15
Intervention End Date
2023-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Adoption of promoted varieties. Both aggregate and disaggregated by gender.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Whether the farmer chooses to plant any seeds of the varieties that were promoted through trial packs in the previous season. Because farmers who receive trial packs of non-hybrid varieties can replant these seeds, we also consider more stringent definitions for adoption, including a) whether the farmer obtains any seeds of the promoted varieties from sources other than their own recycled seeds, and b) whether the farmer plants more seed used of the promoted varieties, compared to what was planted in the season during which the farmer received trial packs.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Investments in seed, adoption of modern production technologies, investments in agriculture, agricultural productivity for target crops (yield per acre), total value of production, agricultural income. Both aggregate and disaggregated by gender.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
- Investment in seed: The total amount spent on seed across all varieties that a farmer may use.
- Adoption of modern production technologies: An indicator for whether the farmer uses fertilizer, pesticides, machinery, or any other modern production technology (including and excluding improved seeds).
- Investments in agriculture: The total amount spent on agricultural production, including any amount of money spent on seeds, and any hired labor. We will construct two investment measures: one excluding and one including the total value of family labor invested in agricultural production.
- Agricultural productivity for target crops: Average productivity across all target crops that a farmer has grown. To aggregate across different crops with different levels of average productivity, we normalize productivity for a given crop using baseline productivity levels. As weights, we use the area cultivated with a given crop.
- Total value of production: we multiply agricultural production for a farmer with the median output price within a county, and aggregate across all crops.
- Agricultural income: Total value of production minus total investments in agriculture (both excluding and including family labor).

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomized, at the village level, and with stratification by county, whether farmers were offered trial packs of new varieties and whether they would receive personalized advisory services. Within each treatment arm, we will further randomize whether or not the consumer-oriented intervention is implemented.

Within each village, we recruited 40 farmers. All farmers are offered insurance, but at the farmer level, the insurance premium discount level is randomized into high (25% of the sample), low (25% of the sample) or no discount (50% of the sample within a village). We cross-randomize whether or not a farmer is provided with a trial pack; 20 farmers per trial pack village receive a trial pack.
Experimental Design Details
In villages with personalized advisories, these advisories are provided only to the 50% of farmers with a premium discount (either high or low). The consumer-oriented intervention will target the same set of farmers as the trial pack intervention.
This results in the following treatment arms within villages:
1A. No premium discount/no personalized advisories, no trial pack/no consumer intervention (10 farmers)
1B. No premium discount/no personalized advisories, trial pack/consumer intervention (10 farmers)
2A. Low premium discount/personalized advisories, no trial pack/no consumer intervention (5 farmers)
2B. Low premium discount/personalized advisories, trial pack/consumer intervention (5 farmers)
3A. High premium discount/personalized advisories, no trial pack/no consumer intervention (5 farmers)
3B. High premium discount/personalized advisories, trial pack/consumer intervention (5 farmers)

The consumer intervention is implemented at the end of the agricultural season, after farmers in the trial pack intervention have grown these varieties.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Village level randomization for trial pack, personalized advisory services, and consumer-oriented intervention
Individual randomization for insurance premium subsidies
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
160 villages
Sample size: planned number of observations
6400 farmers (40 farmers per village)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1A. No trial packs, no personalized advisory services, no consumer intervention: 20 villages
1B. No trial packs, no personalized advisory services, consumer intervention: 20 villages
2A. No trial packs, personalized advisory services, no consumer intervention: 20 villages
2B. No trial packs, personalized advisory services, consumer intervention: 20 villages
3A. Trial packs, no personalized advisory services, no consumer intervention: 20 villages
3B. Trial packs, no personalized advisory services, consumer intervention: 20 villages
4A. Trial packs, personalized advisory services, no consumer intervention: 20 villages
4B. Trial packs, personalized advisory services, consumer intervention: 20 villages
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Maseno University Scientific and Ethics Review Committee
IRB Approval Date
2022-07-25
IRB Approval Number
MUERC/00922/20
IRB Name
International Food Policy Research Institute
IRB Approval Date
2020-03-19
IRB Approval Number
MTID-20-0306
IRB Name
International Food Policy Research Institute
IRB Approval Date
2019-12-17
IRB Approval Number
MTID-19-1270
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials