Accelerating Crop Varietal Turnover in Nigeria

Last registered on January 03, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Accelerating Crop Varietal Turnover in Nigeria
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010716
Initial registration date
December 31, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 03, 2023, 5:30 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
IFPRI

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-01-03
End date
2024-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa remains low despite the potential and economic and food security importance of agriculture. Improved technologies are available but not always accessible, affordable, and adopted by small-scale producers. One CGIAR and national partners (National Agricultural Research and Extension Services) had been developing improved varieties to solve many of farmers' production challenges, but turnover of these improved varieties has been slow. Small-scale seed businesses lack incentives to actively promote new varieties given weak demand. Little is known about the drivers of varietal replacement and product substitution, and the role of downstream market actors such as traders, processors, and consumers in this process.  The overarching research question is: "What drives farmers’ and consumers’ variety replacement and product substitution?"

In Nigeria, two important staple crops are maize and cowpea, but they persistently have low productivity. For example, maize yield is at 1.62 ton per hectare compared to 4.2 ton per hectare in Ethiopia and about 5-6 ton per hectare average in Southern Africa and globally (FAOSTAT). The low productivity is reported to be due to poor soil condition, low fertilizer use, poor rains, poor management practices, and low adoption of improved varieties and certified seeds. Based on a nationally representative household survey in 2018 (LSMS), only 11% of maize farming grew improved maize varieties and 7% used certified seeds. Only 3% of cowpea farmers grew improved cowpea varieties and only 2% used certified seeds. The aim of this study is to verify these adoption rates, understand why adoption is very low, and test interventions to help increase adoption and improve farmers’ productivity and incomes.

The study will evaluate the impact of production- and consumption-related interventions to address the behavior constraints of farmers and consumers in adopting new varieties of maize and cowpea. These constraints may be related to information and risk.
Interventions: Provision of seed trial pack (2-kg each of maize and cowpea) and information intervention on consumption traits and different cooking recipes.

The study will employ a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT), with villages to different treatment arms:
Treatment 1: Villages assigned to receive seed trial pack only
Treatment 2: Villages assigned to receive consumption-related information only
Treatment 3: Villages assigned to receive both seed trial pack and consumption related information (combined)
Control group: No intervention

The cRCT will follow a 2x2 factorial design.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ragasa, Catherine. 2023. "Accelerating Crop Varietal Turnover in Nigeria." AEA RCT Registry. January 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10716-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The study will evaluate the impact of production- and consumption-related interventions to address the behavior constraints of farmers and consumers in adopting new varieties of maize and cowpea. These constraints may be related to information and risk.

Interventions: Provision of seed trial packs (1.5-kg each of maize and cowpea) and information intervention on consumption traits and different cooking recipes.

Intervention Start Date
2023-05-01
Intervention End Date
2023-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome indicator is adoption of the variety provided (dummy 0/1 if farmer planted the variety provided in the next growing seasons).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The primary outcome indicator is adoption of the variety provided (dummy 0/1 if farmer planted the variety provided in the next growing seasons).

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Other measures of adoption to collect:
• Land cultivated with the variety provided in next growing seasons
• Land cultivated with any improved/recently-released variety in the next growing season
• Varietal age (age of varieties planted by the adoption rate)
Other outcome indicators to measure:
• Adoption by other farmers in the treatment villages (spillover effect)
• Yield of maize and cowpea
• Income from maize and cowpea
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Other measures of adoption to collect:
• Land cultivated with the variety provided in next growing seasons
• Land cultivated with any improved/recently-released variety in the next growing season
• Varietal age (age of varieties planted by the adoption rate)
Other outcome indicators to measure:
• Adoption by other farmers in the treatment villages (spillover effect)
• Yield of maize and cowpea
• Income from maize and cowpea

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study will employ a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT), with villages to different treatment arms:
Treatment 1: Villages assigned to receive seed trial pack only
Treatment 2: Villages assigned to receive consumption-related information only
Treatment 3: Villages assigned to receive both seed trial pack and consumption related information (combined)
Control group: No intervention

The cRCT will follow a 2x2 factorial design.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Village
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
252
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
8
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
As we have a clustered design, we perform a grid search over 2 dimensions: number of villages and number of households per village. We use the following assumptions for the power calculations. The primary outcome we use is a binary indicator for use of improved seed at the farmer level. Using LSMS data 2018, 11% of maize growers reported using improved varieties and 3% of cowpea growers reported using cowpea varieties. In the 2 focused states (Kaduna and Bauchi), average adoption rate was 12% for maize and 2.5% for cowpea. Inter cluster (within village) correlation for this outcome has been estimated to be 0.12. A sample size of 1,260 will be able to detect minimum effect of 6 percentage points for cowpea and 11 percentage points for maize (assuming 5 sample per cluster in 63 clusters; and assuming two-sided test with a 5% significance level and a power of 80%).
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) IRB
IRB Approval Date
2022-11-27
IRB Approval Number
DSGD-22-1164