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Does the Messenger of Central Bank Communication Matter? Effects on Belief Updating.

Last registered on January 09, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Macroeconomic Expectations and Belief Updating
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010727
Initial registration date
January 09, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 09, 2023, 5:33 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Alena Wabitsch
Affiliation
University of Oxford
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-01-09
End date
2024-09-30
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Governance
Additional Keywords
Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This paper studies primarily individuals' expectations, updates to their expectations, and their sentiment about institutions and the economy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Wabitsch, Alena. 2023. "Macroeconomic Expectations and Belief Updating." AEA RCT Registry. January 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10727-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-02-01
Intervention End Date
2023-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) Short Survey: inflation expectations and variance, sentiments towards monetary policy (institution), economy, inflation

2) RCT: Economic Forecast (prior), Economic Forecast Revision after treatment (posterior), institutional trust and knowledge
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A short survey, as well as an information treatment survey experiment are run to test how individuals form and update economic expectations.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
1) Short Survey: no treatment, so no treatment randomisation; only some randomisation component done by computer regarding question on some extra information

2) RCT: Randomisation done by the computer (potentially via a survey company)
Randomization Unit
1) Short Survey: individual.

2) RCT: individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1) n/a

2) RCT: 2-4 nationalities
Sample size: planned number of observations
for Short Survey: at least 100 Twitter users, up to 500 for the RCT: at least 100 participants per nationality, up to 500 per nationality
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1) Short Survey: at least 20 Twitter users by language (5 languages) - no treatment

2) RCT: at least 50 participants per treatment (2 treatments) and per nationality (2-4 languages)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Department of Economics Departmental Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2021-11-05
IRB Approval Number
ECONCIA21-22-24
Analysis Plan