A Randomized Experiment on Perceptions and Preferences towards Chinese Foreign Investments in Germany

Last registered on August 01, 2024

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

A Randomized Experiment on Perceptions and Preferences towards Chinese Foreign Investments in Germany

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0010741

Initial registration date

January 18, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

January 23, 2023, 6:47 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated

August 01, 2024, 3:26 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country

Germany

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Zhexun Mo

Affiliation

Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, GC-CUNY; World Inequality Lab, Paris School of Economics

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Li Yang

PI Affiliation

ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Carsten Schröder

PI Affiliation

DIW Berlin

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Katharina Kaeppel

PI Affiliation

Paris School of Economics; Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

Completed

Start date

2023-03-01

End date

2024-01-01

Keywords

Behavior, Governance, Welfare

Additional Keywords

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.

Abstract

China's rapid economic development and its central role in driving globalization have significantly expanded its economic ties with the European Union (EU) over the past few decades. However, in recent years, geopolitical tensions have raised concerns within the EU about whether to further strengthen investment ties with China. This project focuses on a crucial aspect of these economic relations: Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) between China and Germany, one of China's largest investment partners within the EU.

We propose to conduct a randomized information-provision survey experiment to gauge the German public’s opinions on inward Chinese FDIs in Germany. This study will first investigate whether there are significant misperceptions among the German public regarding the actual figures and current status of Chinese FDIs in Germany. Secondly, we will examine the contrasting causal effects of negative and positive narratives about Chinese FDIs versus factual information of Chinese FDIs in Germany on shaping preferences towards these investments.

Given the close bilateral economic relationship between China and Germany, it is equally important to understand Chinese perceptions of German investments. Therefore, we will conduct an auxiliary survey experiment in China to measure the Chinese public's attitudes towards German FDIs in China. Given the relatively favorable portrayal of German investments in China, we aim to observe if there is a significant discrepancy in mutual perceptions of the economic benefits or threats posed by each other.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Kaeppel, Katharina et al. 2024. "A Randomized Experiment on Perceptions and Preferences towards Chinese Foreign Investments in Germany." AEA RCT Registry. August 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10741-2.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention (Hidden)

IRB Exemptions

Our randomized intervention will be exempted from the Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval, given the fact that this randomised experiment will be internally embedded in the Innovation Sample (IS) structure of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

The IS is a random sub-sample of the German Socio-Economic Panel, which is an annual panel dataset implemented by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW-Berlin), covering representative German households across the country. Specifically, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin, contracted Infas Institut fuer Angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH to carry out the SOEP survey for the year of 2022-2023. Data collection, processing, and storage were in full accordance with German data protection regulations. Research and survey contents was overseen by the DIW Scientific Advisory Board and SOEP's Scientific Committee. German data privacy laws necessitate that all users sign a data user contract with the DIW Berlin. The survey data files are provided in anonymous form only. The institutes do not provide third parties with any data that would permit individuals to be identified.

Intervention Start Date

2023-04-24

Intervention End Date

2023-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

The German public's preferences towards Chinese investments, which will be measured on a Likert scale ranging from -5 to 5,
where -5 is strongly disagree, 0 is neutral, and 5 is strongly support. It will also be measured in binary variables indicating whether they select a hypothetical Chinese FDI proposal in Germany compared to other FDI proposals from other EU countries or the US.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

We will randomly divide our sample into four groups, namely three treatment groups and one control group. The four groups will be of equal sizes. In the first treatment group (T1), the respondents will be shown a positive narrative of inward Chinese FDIs in Germany from German politicians and experts. In the second treatment group (T2), the respondents will be shown a negative narrative of Chinese FDIs in Germany from German politicians and experts. In the third treatment group (T3), the respondents will be asked to state their own perceptions of the distribution of Chinese FDI in Germany, and then they will be confronted with the real figures (belief updates). Afterwards, we will be comparing individuals from each one of the treatment arms respectively with the control group, to show to which extent our respective treatments would alter (decrease or increase) the German public's support for Chinese FDI plans.

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

The randomization procedure is implemented by computers by the admin team at the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in DIW-Berlin.

Randomization Unit

The unit of randomization is at the household Level, but the actual data collection will be at the individual level, which means all individuals within the same household will be allocated to the same treatment (control) group. Although the actual implementation will still be at the individual level, in the sense that individuals within the same household won't be jointly administered the same questionnaire at the same time (but rather interviewed separately and independently on his/her own).

Was the treatment clustered?

Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

We will cluster at the household level as well (which is also our unit of randomization). In total, there will be around 1,738 clusters (households).

Sample size: planned number of observations

In total, we will have around 2,365 individual-level observations (which is the unit of data collection), across 1,738 households within the Innovation Sample of SOEP.

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

We will have around 590 individual-level observations per treatment arm, and around 435 clusters (households) per treatment arm.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB