Experimental Design
The objective of this trial is to answer the following research questions using a randomized controlled trial. The target sample of interest for the trial is youth from households participating in the Productive Safety Net Program, the primary social protection program in rural Ethiopia; these households are generally among the poorest 10-15% of rural Ethiopian households.
1) What is the impact of a secondary school scholarship (announced in March 2023) on the primary outcome of interest, secondary school enrollment, for three cohorts of students from PSNP households? These cohorts include the grade eight cohort, who will complete grade eight in spring 2023 and may be eligible to enroll in secondary school in fall 2023, conditional on passing the primary school leaving certificate exam; the grade seven cohort, who will complete grade eight in spring 2024 and may be eligible to enroll the following fall, conditional on passing the exam; and the dropout cohort, students who passed the exam in spring 2022 or spring 2021 but failed to enroll in secondary school, or may have enrolled and later dropped out, and who will now have an opportunity to return one year later in fall 2023.
2) What is the impact of the secondary school scholarship on secondary outcomes including passing rates on the primary school leaving exam; attendance and academic performance in secondary school, once enrolled; engagement in economic activities among youth; and early marriage?
3) Do the effects of the secondary school scholarship differ across cohorts? (Note, this comparison will not exploit a dimension of randomization, but will entail a comparison of the treatment effects for different cohorts; if there are other time-varying shocks to youth enrollment patterns in this period, that may be a source of bias in these comparisons.)
The proposed design is a randomized controlled trial with randomization at the kebele level: i.e., scholarships will be made available in some kebeles and not others. Given that the scholarship targets only PSNP households, eligibility will be communicated directly to eligible youth and their parents (i.e., there will not be a general school-wide or community-wide announcement). This communication process will roll out in March 2023 immediately following the baseline survey: accordingly, for the eighth grade cohort, they will be aware of the scholarship around three months prior to the primary school leaving exam. (The seventh grade cohort, however, will have more than a year’s advanced notice of the availability of the scholarship, and may adjust their engagement in school accordingly; we will plan to remind this cohort about their potential eligibility for the scholarship in March 2024, again around three months prior to their scheduled primary school leaving exam). The dropout cohort has, by definition, already passed the primary school leaving exam, but they will likewise be informed of the scholarship in March 2023 and thus will be aware around six months prior to the date on which they may re-enroll (September).
Based on review of existing data collected by IFPRI as well as school roster data, we estimate that in a kebele including around 300 PSNP households (the average number of beneficiary households in the target sample kebeles), around 5 to 10% of PSNP households will have youth meeting the eligibility criteria, or around 15 to 25 youth per kebele. There is considerable variation in the estimated cluster size across kebeles.
Data collection
The trial was launched with school-based data collection to constitute the sample in January 2022. The baseline survey will be conducted in February and March 2023.
First, the survey team EconInsight visited all primary schools in the target kebeles to compile lists of current eighth and seventh graders as well as demographic information for those students; and lists of students who passed the eighth grade exam from those schools in the two previous years. For current students who were present on the visit, they were also asked to self-report their household's PSNP status. For current students who were absent that day, teachers or school staff reported the student's information including parental names, but information on self-reported PSNP status was not available. For graduates, only the student's name is available, allowing us to infer the father's name.
Second, a sample of potentially eligible households was constructed for screening to identify eligibility. For youth who were present and self-reported PSNP status, all of their households were included in the screening sample. For the samples of absent youth and eighth grade graduate youth, information from the school survey will be merged with PSNP beneficiary lists to identify households that plausibly have an eligible youth, and these households will be visited and screened. Youth who enter the sample will be those who meet the following criteria: they are resident in a household that is a current PSNP beneficiary; and they were enrolled in seventh or eighth grade as of the school visit, or graduated from eighth grade in 2022 or 2021.
Following the screening process, a survey will be conducted with a youth and his/her parent or caretaker to collect information about household socioeconomic status, youth educational history, time allocation, non-cognitive skills, and future aspirations for education, work, marriage, and fertility.
A full-scale endline survey is planned approximately 2.5 years post-baseline, in fall 2025. The endline survey will collect data on a range of outcomes of interest, primarily targeting the youth, but may also include surveys with parents or caretakers.