What affects investors' expectations?

Last registered on March 30, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
What affects investors' expectations?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011124
Initial registration date
March 21, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 30, 2023, 2:38 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Pascaline Dupas
Affiliation
Princeton University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Travis Baseler
PI Affiliation
University of Rochester
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PI Name
Paolo Falco
PI Affiliation
University of Copenhagen
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-03-22
End date
2023-12-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study aims to investigate how investors' expectations are affected by information about the project and the region in which an investment project is located.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baseler, Travis, Pascaline Dupas and Paolo Falco. 2023. "What affects investors' expectations?." AEA RCT Registry. March 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11124-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This is a survey-based experiment. No intervention per se. See experimental design section.
Intervention Start Date
2023-03-22
Intervention End Date
2023-05-05

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our main outcomes will be respondents’ ratings of each project’s potential as an investment opportunity.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will give participants information about hypothetical investment projects in 4 continents, and we will ask them a series of questions to gauge their assessment of each project.
Experimental Design Details
Many people have noticed a propensity for writers to refer to places in Africa with the name of the continent rather than the name of the country, which appears to be much less common for other regions. We wish to investigate whether this propensity might influence perceptions of investment risk.

In particular, this study aims to investigate how investors' expectations are affected by information about the geographical area in which an investment project is located. We hypothesize that the influence of information about other countries in a region differs by continent and, specifically, that negative information about nearby countries may disproportionately affect investment in Africa compared to other continents.

We will give participants information about hypothetical investment projects in 4 continents (3 countries per continent, 2 neighbor countries and one country far away), and we will ask them a series of questions to gauge their assessment of each project. Crucially, we will experimentally vary the information about other countries on the same continent as the one where the project is located.

Specifically, for each continent, the experiment will randomly split participants into three groups (treatment arms): A, B, and C. Group A will only receive neutral information about the countries in which the projects are located. Group B will receive, in addition to information about the countries in which the projects are located, negative information about the first country. Group C will receive, in addition to information about the countries in which the projects are located, positive information about the first country.

We will estimate the effect of having received negative (positive) information about country 1 on assessments of project potential in same-continent countries 2 (neighbor) and 3 (far), and test for heterogeneity across continents and by whether each respondent's has traveled to or researched the continent in question.
Randomization Method
Randomization done by survey tool
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
The survey will be sent to online volunteers. We do not know how many will accept to fill the survey.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We are not sure but would hope to get at least 400.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We are randomizing the order in which continents appear, the sector and textual description of the investment proposed, and the information people receive about the country. There are many possible combinations.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Stanford IRB
IRB Approval Date
2023-02-15
IRB Approval Number
69106
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials