Which interpretation to follow? How do people infer what causes what?

Last registered on January 19, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Which interpretation to follow? How do people infer what causes what?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011336
Initial registration date
April 26, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 19, 2024, 1:55 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Switzerland
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Sandro Ambuehl
Affiliation
University of Zurich
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Heidi Christina Thysen
PI Affiliation
Norwegian School of Economics
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Withdrawn
Start date
2023-04-24
End date
2023-05-13
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
C91, D01, D83
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
A central factor when choosing an action is its causal effect on outcomes we care about. Yet, for many decisions, only observational data are available. While experts often provide causal interpretations and recommendations for action, they frequently disagree. We use a laboratory experiment to study how humans choose in such settings. Our results inform the nascent literature on narrative competition and on model persuasion.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ambuehl, Sandro and Heidi Christina Thysen. 2024. "Which interpretation to follow? How do people infer what causes what?." AEA RCT Registry. January 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11336-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In each decisions subjects are faced with a choice between either two or three advisors. By choosing an advisor the subject (by design) also chooses the action recommended by the chosen advisor. The actions are costly and maps into the subjects bonus payment according to a data generating process (DGP) that is not directly known to the subjects. To aid their the decision the subjects can choose to inspect graphical representations of the data.
Intervention Start Date
2023-04-24
Intervention End Date
2023-05-13

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Choice of advice
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Interaction data
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In each decisions subjects are faced with a choice between either two or three advisors. By choosing an advisor the subject (by design) also chooses the action recommended by the chosen advisor. The actions are costly and maps into the subjects bonus payment according to a data generating process (DGP) that is not directly known to the subjects. To aid their the decision the subjects can choose to inspect graphical representations of the data.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Each subject makes multiple decision, some randomization is at the decision level, other is at the subject level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
700 student subjects
Sample size: planned number of observations
700 student subjects
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
700 student subjects, 29 or 30 decisions for each (depending on treatment)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See attached document "power simulations". We seek a sufficiently precise classification of subjects into types, so standard RCT power calculations don't apply.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Human Subjects Committee of the Faculty of Economics, Business Administration, and Information Technology, University of Zurich
IRB Approval Date
2021-12-13
IRB Approval Number
# 2021-102
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
May 10, 2023, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
May 10, 2023, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
764 subjects (Experiment 1: 485, Experiment 2: 279)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
764 subjects (Experiment 1: 485, Experiment 2: 279)
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Question does not apply because this is a within-subjects design.
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials