Minneapolis Guaranteed Basic Income Pilot

Last registered on May 16, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Minneapolis Guaranteed Basic Income Pilot
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011369
Initial registration date
May 05, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 16, 2023, 12:45 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2021-07-01
End date
2025-07-01
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This document outlines the pre-analysis plan for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ analysis of the City of Minneapolis’ Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI) Pilot. The study contains 530 households drawn from 9 ZIP codes in Minneapolis. Treated households receive $500 per month for 24 months. Control households receive $150 for completing surveys at 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months. Participants were randomly assigned to treatment within 8 strata defined by poverty, presence of children, and two ZIP code groups. Early enrollment data showed significant differential attrition. The plan addresses biases from selective attrition by (a) conditioning on age, baseline income, and education (b) controlling for the baseline outcome variable and (c) estimating treatment/control contrasts for the change in outcomes (difference-in-differences).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, Ryan Nunn and Vanessa Palmer. 2023. "Minneapolis Guaranteed Basic Income Pilot." AEA RCT Registry. May 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11369-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-06-01
Intervention End Date
2024-06-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Labor Supply (INDEX_LSUPP), Housing Stability (INDEX_HSTABLE), Financial Security (INDEX_FINSEC), Well-Being (INDEX_WB), Food Security (INDEX_FOODSEC_SECURE), Psychological Wellness (Kessler 10) (INDEX_K10)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
i. Labor Supply (INDEX_LSUPP)
This index uses six concepts—constructed from 12 variables—to measure how much participants work:
• Respondent worked in the last month (WORK_ANYMONTH==“Yes”)
• Respondent employed in the week before the survey (WORK_ANYWEEK==“Yes” | WORK_TEMPABS==“Yes” | WORK_UNPAYFAM==“Yes”)
• Respondent in the labor force in the week before the survey ((WORK_ANYWEEK==“Yes” | WORK_TEMPABS==“Yes” | WORK_TEMPLAY==“Yes” | WORK_UNPAYFAM==“Yes”) | (WORK_SEARCH==“Yes” & WORK_AVAIL==“Yes”))
• Respondent working full-time (WORK_MAINFTPT==“Usually full-time” | WORK_MAINHRWK>=35)
• Respondent had multiple jobs in the week before the survey (WORK_ANYADDLWK==“Yes”)
• Respondent total usual weekly hours worked at all jobs (WORK_MAINHRWK*(WORK_MAINHRWK~=“DKR”) + WORK_ADDLHRWK*(WORK_ADDLHRWK~=“DKR”))
ii. Housing Stability (INDEX_HSTABLE)
This index uses nine concepts to measure how stable a participant’s housing situation is:
• Respondent lives in a house or apartment (HOUSE_CURR==“House” | HOUSE_CURR==“Apartment”)
• Respondent/household owns or rents their housing (HOUSE_OWNRENT==“Owned by you or someone in your household with a mortgage or loan” | HOUSE_OWNRENT==“Owned by you or someone in your household free and clear” | HOUSE_OWNRENT==“Rented by you”)
• Household did not experience difficulty affording housing payment in the previous six months (HOUSE_AFFORD6==“Never”)
• Household was not late on rent or mortgage in the previous six months (HOUSE_LATE6==“No”)
• Respondent does not feel that housing is overcrowded (HOUSE_CROWD==“No”)
• Persons per bedroom in respondent’s housing unit is below overcrowding measure suggested by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (constructed from HOUSE_BEDROOMS, HH_COUNT, and HH_OTHCOUNT; total persons in housing unit / bedrooms in housing unit ≤ 2)
• No household experiences of housing instability over the previous six months (HOUSE_INST6==“None of the above”)
• No household worry about a forced move over the previous six months (HOUSE_MOVEFWORRY6==“Never”)
• Respondent/household did not experience a forced move in the previous six months (HOUSE_MOVE6==“Yes" & HOUSE_MOVE6REAS==“Forced”)
iii. Financial Security (INDEX_FINSEC)
This index uses 11 concepts to measure a household’s financial stability:
• Self-reported overall financial situation (FIN_OVERALL==“Living comfortably” or FIN_OVERALL==“Doing okay”)
• Not getting income from sources other than working (i.e., public assistance, family or friends, or other sources) (FIN_HOUSEINCNOWORKYN==“No”)
• No charity food assistance (FIN_SUPPFOOD6==“No”)
• No charity financial support (FIN_SUPPFINORG6==“No”)
• No family financial support (FIN_SUPPFINPERS6==“No”)
• Provide financial support for others (FIN_SUPPFINPERSPROV==“Yes”)
• Any precautionary saving (FIN_SAVE3MO==“Yes”)
• Could cover three months’ expenses (FIN_COVER3MO==“Yes”)
• Could cover a $400 emergency expense (FIN_400HOW~=“I wouldn’t”)
• Able to pay all bills (FIN_PAYBILL==“Able”)
• Behind on debt (FIN_DEBTBEHIND==“No”)
iv. Well-Being (INDEX_WB)
This index uses three concepts to measure respondents’ self-reported general well-being. Item scores are reverse-coded from the scales outlined in the sources from which they originated:
• General health (WELL_HEALTH)
• Overall happiness (WELL_HAPPY)
• General life satisfaction (WELL_SATISFIED)
v. Food Security (INDEX_FOODSEC_SECURE)
This binary outcome is constructed from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s six-item short form of its food security survey. Respondents are asked a series of questions referring to the last 30 days. Results are aggregated according to USDA’s scoring guidance. Scores of zero or one (on a scale of six) represent a screening result of “high or marginal food security” in a household, and are considered here food secure.
• Thought food wouldn’t last (FOOD_LAST)
• Couldn't afford balanced meals (FOOD_BAL)
• Skipped meals or cut the size of meals (FOOD_SIZESKIP)
• Number of days skipped/cut size (FOOD_SIZESKIPFREQ)
• Ate less than you should (FOOD_EATLESS)
• Did not eat despite feeling hungry (FOOD_NOTEAT)
vi. Psychological Wellness (Kessler 10) (INDEX_K10)
This outcome is based on one version of a common, clinically predictive screening tool for psychological distress. Items ask how often respondents experienced various feelings in the last 30 days, with responses on a five-element scale ranging from “none of the time” (scored as one) to “all of the time” (scored as five). Responses are then summed. Consistent with screening guidance and other evaluations, we use a score of 20 as a threshold under which a respondent is considered not to have mental health problems.
• Tired out for no good reason (HEALTH_KTIRED)
• Nervous (HEALTH_KNERV)
• So nervous that nothing could calm you down (HEALTH_KCALM)
• Hopeless (HEALTH_KHOPE)
• Restless or fidgety (HEALTH_KREST)
• So restless you could not sit still (HEALTH_KSTILL)
• Depressed (HEALTH_KDEPR)
• So depressed that nothing could cheer you up (HEALTH_KCHEER)
• Everything was an effort (HEALTH_KEFFORT)
• Worthless (HEALTH_KWORTH)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Housing Quantity (INDEX_HQUANT), Use of Low-Cost Credit (INDEX_CRED), Healthcare Utilization (INDEX_HUSE), Healthcare Access (INDEX_HACC), Respondent employed in the week before the survey, Respondent works multiple jobs, Respondent’s household could cover a $400 expense, Respondent reported or implied hourly wage (among workers), Respondent’s household provides financial support to others, Respondent’s household not flagged on common housing instability screener, Respondent transportation access, Respondent school/training attendance, Points in the cumulative distribution of annual household income (asked only at annual intervals)


Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
vii. Housing Quantity (INDEX_HQUANT)
This index uses four concepts to measure the amount of housing that participants consume:
• Respondent/household owns their housing (HOUSE_OWNRENT==“Owned by you or someone in your household with a mortgage or loan” | HOUSE_OWNRENT==“Owned by you or someone in your household free and clear”)
• Rent or mortgage payment (HOUSE_COSTMO)
• Number of bedrooms (HOUSE_BEDROOMS)
• Respondent made a planned move in the previous six months (HOUSE_MOVE6==“Yes” & (HOUSE_MOVE6REAS==“Wanted…” | HOUSE_MOVE6REAS==“Household changed…”))
viii. Use of Low-Cost Credit (INDEX_CRED)
This index uses five concepts to measure participants’ households’ avoidance of higher-cost sources of credit:
• No non-bank money order (FIN_CREDMONORD~=“Yes”)
• No non-bank check cash (FIN_CREDCASH~=“Yes”)
• No payday loan (FIN_CREDPAYDAY~=“Yes”)
• No pawn shop/auto title loan (FIN_CREDLOAN==“Yes”)
• No respondent unpaid credit card balance (FIN_CC==“No” | FIN_CCBALFREQ6==“Never”)
ix. Healthcare Utilization (INDEX_HUSE)
This index uses six items to measure the extent to which respondents reported a household member using various healthcare services in the previous six months:
• Prescription medicine (HEALTH_UPRESC6)
• Visit to a doctor or specialist (HEALTH_UDOC6)
• Mental health care or counseling (HEALTH_UMENT6)
• Dental care (HEALTH_UDENT6)
• Follow-up care (HEALTH_UFOLL6)
• Emergency room (HEALTH_UEROOM6)
x. Healthcare Access (INDEX_HACC)
This index uses six items to measure the extent to which respondents reported—in the previous six months—a household member having needed various healthcare services, but having gone without due to financial constraints. A response of “no” is coded positively.
• Prescription medicine (HEALTH_NPRESC6)
• Visit to a doctor or specialist (HEALTH_NDOC6)
• Mental health care or counseling (HEALTH_NMENT6)
• Dental care (HEALTH_NDENT6)
• Follow-up care (HEALTH_NFOLL6)
• Emergency room (HEALTH_NEROOM6)

ii. Respondent employed in the week before the survey (WORK_ANYWEEK==“Yes” | WORK_TEMPABS==“Yes” | WORK _UNPAYFAM==“Yes”)
iii. Respondent works multiple jobs (WORK_ANYADDLWK==“Yes”)
iv. Respondent’s household could cover a $400 expense (FIN_400HOW~=“I wouldn’t”)
v. Respondent reported or implied hourly wage (among workers) (constructed from WORK_MAINHRWK, WORK_MAINEARNPERIOD, WORK_MAINEARNAMT, WORK_ADDLHRWK, and WORK_ADDLEARNWK)
vi. Respondent’s household provides financial support to others (FIN_SUPPFINPERSPROV==“Yes”)
vii. Respondent’s household not flagged on common housing instability screener (HOUSE_INST6==“None of the above”)
viii. Respondent transportation access (WELL_TRANS==“Always” | WELL_TRANS==“Often”)
ix. Respondent school/training attendance (EDUC_SCHATT6==Yes | (EDUC_TRAINATT6==“Yes” & (EDUC_TRAINCOMP6==“Yes” | EDUC_TRAINCOMP6==“No, but still attending”))
x. Points in the cumulative distribution of annual household income (asked only at annual intervals) (constructed from FIN_HOUSEINC)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Stratified randomized controlled trial.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by office on a computer. Random list within strata generates first 199 treatment offers, 200th spot and any treatment refusals filled from a randomized list of the remaining participants.
Randomization Unit
Household.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
530 participants at baseline, 288 usable observations at 6-month follow-up.
Sample size: planned number of observations
530
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 assigned to treatment, 330 control.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Evaluation Plan: Minneapolis Guaranteed Basic Income Pilot

MD5: 2ebc9362cbde0a3709d45256f64e76dd

SHA1: f53dd049a205d626302fbe2d138bb2622a940f3a

Uploaded At: May 05, 2023