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Field
Abstract
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Before
The purpose of this project is to study how anchors affect estimations of subjective belief distributions (SBDs). Anchoring is a well-known judgment bias in decisions. Although the impact of anchors has been studied extensively on estimations of single-number summary statistics, its impact on higher moments of SBDs is to a large extent unexplored. This makes it valuable to study since SBDs play an important role in economic theory.
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After
The purpose of this project is to study how anchors affect estimations of subjective belief distributions (SBDs). Anchoring is a well-known judgment bias in decisions. Although the impact of anchors has been studied extensively on estimations of single-number summary statistics, its impact on higher moments of SBDs is to a large extent unexplored. This makes it valuable to study since SBDs play an important role in economic theory.
A second study using a number input interface is conducted for robustness check.
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Field
Intervention (Public)
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Before
Low anchor: The subjects are asked if they believe that the a variable is lower or higher than the value of a low anchor
High anchor: The subjects are asked if they believe that the a variable is lower or higher than the value of a high anchor
Mean elicitation The subjects are asked to guess the value of a variable.
Subjective belief distribution (SBD) elicitation: The subjects are asked to input the distribution of a variable using the click-and-drag method (Crosetto and de Haan, 2022)
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After
Low anchor: The subjects are asked if they believe that the a variable is lower or higher than the value of a low anchor
High anchor: The subjects are asked if they believe that the a variable is lower or higher than the value of a high anchor
Mean elicitation The subjects are asked to guess the value of a variable.
Subjective belief distribution (SBD) elicitation: The subjects are asked to input the distribution of a variable using the click-and-drag method (Crosetto and de Haan, 2023)
In a robustness check, we use the number input interface (Crosetto and de Haan, 2023) to elicit distribution.
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Field
Experimental Design (Public)
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Before
We start by giving all subjects information about central concepts in the survey such as the average and the frequency distribution of a set of values. We also let subjects answer a few control questions that are designed to check that the subjects understand the concepts.
The next step is to inform subjects that we have collected information about a given price distribution. It will be a distribution of historical prices for a one-night hotel room in the city of Rome. This distribution was selected since we want the subject to have some idea about the price distribution but not too much information about it.
Subjects are then randomly allocated to one of the following five treatments, where subjects’ beliefs are elicited with monetary incentives.
1. Control elicitation of Distribution (CD). We elicit the SBDs of the hotel room prices using the procedure suggested by Crosetto and de Haan (2022). There is no anchoring in this treatment.
2. Low anchor elicitation of Mean (LM). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a low anchor. After that subjects are asked to guess the average price of the hotel room.
3. Low anchor elicitation of Distribution (LD). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a low anchor. After that, we elicit the SBDs of the hotel room prices by the same technique as in CD.
4. High anchor elicitation of Mean (HM). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a high anchor. After that subjects are asked to guess the average price of the hotel room.
5. High anchor elicitation of Distribution (HD). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a high anchor. After that, we elicit the SBDs of the hotel room prices by the same technique as in CD.
We then run a 2nd elicitation so that subjects who received the LM and HM will receive CD and subjects who received CD, LD, and HD will be asked to guess the average hotel prices. (Hence, they receive the same treatment as in LM and HM but without any anchor, which will be denoted as M.) In connection with the 2nd elicitation, we will ask how certain the subjects are about their estimations following the elicitation of cognitive uncertainty (CU) by Enke and Graeber (2022). The 2nd round elicitations are of secondary importance and will only be used in the exploratory analysis.
After the treatment, all subjects answer questions about demographics, cognitive reflection, investment behavior, and financial literacy.
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After
We start by giving all subjects information about central concepts in the survey such as the average and the frequency distribution of a set of values. We also let subjects answer a few control questions that are designed to check that the subjects understand the concepts.
The next step is to inform subjects that we have collected information about a given price distribution. It will be a distribution of historical prices for a one-night hotel room in the city of Rome. This distribution was selected since we want the subject to have some idea about the price distribution but not too much information about it.
Subjects are then randomly allocated to one of the following five treatments, where subjects’ beliefs are elicited with monetary incentives.
1. Control elicitation of Distribution (CD). We elicit the SBDs of the hotel room prices using the procedure suggested by Crosetto and de Haan (2023). There is no anchoring in this treatment.
2. Low anchor elicitation of Mean (LM). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a low anchor. After that subjects are asked to guess the average price of the hotel room.
3. Low anchor elicitation of Distribution (LD). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a low anchor. After that, we elicit the SBDs of the hotel room prices by the same technique as in CD.
4. High anchor elicitation of Mean (HM). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a high anchor. After that subjects are asked to guess the average price of the hotel room.
5. High anchor elicitation of Distribution (HD). The subjects are first asked if they believe that the average price is lower or higher than the value of a high anchor. After that, we elicit the SBDs of the hotel room prices by the same technique as in CD.
We then run a 2nd elicitation so that subjects who received the LM and HM will receive CD and subjects who received CD, LD, and HD will be asked to guess the average hotel prices. (Hence, they receive the same treatment as in LM and HM but without any anchor, which will be denoted as M.) In connection with the 2nd elicitation, we will ask how certain the subjects are about their estimations following the elicitation of cognitive uncertainty (CU) by Enke and Graeber (2022). The 2nd round elicitations are of secondary importance and will only be used in the exploratory analysis.
After the treatment, all subjects answer questions about demographics, cognitive reflection, investment behavior, and financial literacy.
In a robustness check, we use the number input interface (Crosetto and de Haan, 2023) to elicit distribution.
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