Expected income mobility and antisocial behavior: an experiment with self-confidence and entitlement.

Last registered on May 24, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Expected income mobility and antisocial behavior: an experiment with self-confidence and entitlement.
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011451
Initial registration date
May 19, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 24, 2023, 1:46 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Università degli Studi di Pavia

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-06-01
End date
2023-09-28
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This paper investigates the behavioral impact of mobility, self-confidence, and entitlement in the context of the prospect of upward mobility (POUM). It has been found that the rates of antisocial behavior occur more frequently when mobility is not possible and that a mobility process determined by effort rather than luck decreases the antisocial behavior rates. What is unclear is whether these findings can be expanded to a setting in which subjects do not experience any income mobility but are able to form expectations about future mobility and when mobility applies in all directions. With this regard, I designed an experiment where subjects can reduce others’ payoffs at a cost, knowing that in the future they can move in the income distribution in all directions. The mobility process is endogenously modified by individuals’ relative performances or luck, and it is characterized by the POUM effect or not based on performances or luck. It has a certain and uncertain part, with the uncertain part being dependent on the experiment’s outcomes. Individuals chose whether to attack or not another subject in three different cases. First, there was no future mobility. Second, decisions were taken knowing that there was future mobility and estimating the unknown part of the mobility function through expectations of subjects’ relative performance or luck, introducing the self-confidence or optimism effect. Finally, subjects made choices knowing that there was future mobility and their actual mobility function, introducing the entitlement effect across treatments. Other determinants that can affect results, such as risk aversion and individual characteristics, are controlled through a specific test and a questionnaire.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Cunsolo, Alessandro. 2023. "Expected income mobility and antisocial behavior: an experiment with self-confidence and entitlement.." AEA RCT Registry. May 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11451-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
There are two treatments, respectively called “Random treatment” and “Effort treatment”. The two treatments differ in how the transition matrix is modified during the experiment. The transition matrix is a table that summarizes the probability with which every participant reaches a given level of income given a starting level of income. In this experiment, it is endogenously modified by individuals’ performance or luck. In the “Random treatment”, the transition matrix is modified according to the results of a lottery in which all subjects participate, whilst in the “Effort treatment”, it is modified according to the results of an effort test.
Intervention Start Date
2023-06-01
Intervention End Date
2023-09-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The key outcome variables of interest in this experiment are the antisocial behavior decisions and the degree of the antisocial behavior decisions.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Antisocial behavior decisions are decisions in which a subject chooses whether to attack another subject or not. Then, it is a 0-1 decision.
The degree of antisocial decisions represent the sum the perpetrator of an attack wants to remove from the victim's earnings, in a range between 20 and 100 cents.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Self-confidence/optimism measures, a risk-aversion measure, political and religious orientation, and previous and current school information.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Self-confidence/optimism measures are derived from individuals’ expectations about their performance in a test or over a lottery relative to actual results. I collect absolute self-confidence/optimism, the difference between expected and actual results, and relative self-confidence/optimism, the difference between the expected and actual percentage of subjects that performed worse than oneself.
The risk-aversion measure is derived through a test, which is the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (Crosetto and Filippin, 2013).
Political and religious orientation and previous and current school information are collected through a questionnaire.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment uses a between-subjects design, and it is divided into eight experimental sessions. Participants, who are recruited online, are equally and randomly divided across the experimental sessions.
The experiment is divided into two parts. In both parts, subjects play in groups of three and decide whether to attack another group member’s outcome at a cost. In the first part of the experiment, subjects make attack decisions with no future mobility. Given that in the first round of instructions, mobility is not mentioned, subjects do not know that their income can change in the second part. In the second part of the experiment, attack choices are made knowing that the initial income can change according to the transition matrix. In the second part, attack choices are made twice for each scenario: not knowing the real transition matrix that will be applied to their initial income (i.e., with the value “p” unknown), and knowing it. Then, choices in the second part are different as the self-confidence effect fades away when the true value of “p” becomes known.
Before antisocial decisions are made in the second part, I collect individuals’ expectations regarding the results of the effort test or the lottery (depending on the treatment). These expectations will be used to determine self-confidence (in the “Effort treatment”) and optimism (in the “Random treatment”) measures. At the end of the experiment. a questionnaire is proposed to collect individual characteristics.
Experimental Design Details
Before this main part of the experiment begins, subjects completed the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (BRET), proposed by Crosetto and Filippin (2012) to measure risk attitudes.
In both treatments, the experiment is divided into two parts. Each part is preceded by the corresponding instructions, which are read aloud by the experimenters, and a comprehension test, highlighting the main concepts of each part.
In both parts of the experiment, subjects made antisocial choices. Subjects are randomly divided into groups of three subjects, that remain the same during the experiment. Subjects’ decisions can only affect the earnings of the members of their group. In each group, a subject has an initial income of 5€, a subject has an initial income of 7€, and a subject has an initial income of 10.50€. Initial incomes in a group are given randomly. During the experiment, subjects do not know their initial income. They see a table that shows their own and group members’ initial income. According to this table, they choose whether to attack another group member’s income or not. When they attack another group member, they choose the sum to be subtracted from the victim’s income in a range between 20 cents and 100 cents. Attacking costs 1/5 of the sum that has been subtracted from the victim. To maintain initial incomes unknown, subjects are shown three scenarios, that differ in the allocations of initial incomes. Every time subjects are asked to make an attack choice, they make a choice for each scenario. In each set of choices, only a choice is made correspondingly to the real initial income and can be used to determine earnings at the end of the experiment. As subjects do not know their real initial income, each choice has the same probability to be used.
As above-mentioned, the experiment is divided into two parts. In the first part, subjects make choices with no future mobility, whilst in the second part, subjects make choices with future mobility. In the second part, choices are made twice: not knowing the real transition matrix that will be applied to their initial income (i.e., with the value “p” unknown), and knowing it.
In both treatments, choices in the second part are preceded by the effort test, which is the slider task, proposed by Gill and Prowse (2012). In the “Effort treatment”, subjects give expectations about the test results before completing the slider task, knowing the test that is used and how it works, and after, to collect information about ex-ante and ex-post self-confidence. They are asked to give their expected number of correct answers and the percentage of participants they expect to have a lower score than their own. In the “Random treatment”, subjects give their expectations about the lottery results one time. They are asked to give the interval in which they expect their number to lie and the percentage of participants they expect to have received a lower drawn number than their own.
At the end of the experiment, subjects have decided on three sets of attack choices, each of which is composed of three attack choices (i.e., one for each possible initial income in each set). A set of antisocial decisions is randomly drawn. If the drawn set is the first one, the decision chosen in the first set considering the real initial income is applied to the initial income (given that in the first part mobility is not considered). If the drawn set is the second (third) one, the decision chosen in the second (third) set considering the real initial income is applied to the initial income (given that in the first part mobility is not considered).
Randomization Method
Randomization by a computer, using the sofware z-Tree.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
The treatment is not clustered.
Sample size: planned number of observations
192 students
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
96 students will be in the first treatment and 96 students will be in the second treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
In the power analysis, I use a power of 80%, 192 subjects, a standard deviation of 0.47, and given that subjects are equally divided into the two treatments. The standard deviation has been found through simulations of the experiment. I detected a minimum detectable effect size of 0.1899.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics Committee of the University of Milan
IRB Approval Date
2022-06-30
IRB Approval Number
N/A

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials