Individual and Social Voter Learning and Measuring Support for Democratic Institutions

Last registered on May 24, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Individual and Social Voter Learning and Measuring Support for Democratic Institutions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011459
Initial registration date
May 21, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 24, 2023, 4:48 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
May 24, 2023, 6:11 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Ceren Baysan
Affiliation
University of Toronto
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Daron Acemoglu
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Cevat Aksoy
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Carlos Molina
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-03-13
End date
2024-07-31
Keywords
Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
There is widespread concern about the reported global democratic decline and its implications for economic growth. A critical factor that may determine the future of democracy is voter understanding and engagement in improving the quality of democratic institutions. However, it remains unclear how voters assess these institutions and if they have a shared understanding of which political parties uphold them. This study aims to evaluate the effect of credible information about democratic institutions on voter behavior and beliefs in Turkey using a large-scale experimental information campaign, electoral data, and survey data.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baysan, Ceren et al. 2023. "Individual and Social Voter Learning and Measuring Support for Democratic Institutions." AEA RCT Registry. May 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11459-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-04-13
Intervention End Date
2023-05-13

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
At the ballot box and neighborhood level, our primary outcomes are the 2023 May 14 presidential and general electoral results and the May 28 run off election results. At the individual level, examples of our primary outcome variables include i) survey data on voters' views about the causal relationship between democratic institutions and various outcomes like corruption; ii) views about the quality of democratic institutions and general questions on democratic norms; iii) affective polarization; iv) voting behavior in the May 14 and May 28 general and presidential elections; and v) questions about social interactions and views of respondents' neighbors.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomized the rollout of an information campaign at the neighborhood level. In addition, neighborhoods were randomly assigned to a second treatment arm in which voters were exposed to campaigns with only persuasive content (``slogans"). We also cross-randomized the information source of the two campaigns across three types of sources. Randomization was stratified by six quantiles of the 2018 vote share for the National Alliance to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and to increase statistical power. We selected a well-balanced draw from among 100000 re-randomizations to avoid other chance imbalances for each treatment arm.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Main study: Neighborhood level randomization for the door-to-door campaigns and ballot-box and neighborhood level analyses. Residential unit level randomization for the door-to-door campaigns and survey-based individual-level analyses. Individual level for the online experiment.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Main study: 554 neighborhoods; residential unit randomization: 2872 residential units
Sample size: planned number of observations
Main study: All ballot boxes contained in the 554 neighborhoods (we have not received the official electoral data and so do not know the total number of ballot boxes in our sample yet). Residential-unit level randomization: 3,020 voters
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
252 treatment neighborhoods and 302 control neighborhoods
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee on the Use of Humans as Experimental Subjects, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
IRB Approval Date
2023-01-03
IRB Approval Number
E-4602
IRB Name
Bilimsel Araştırma ve Yayın Etiği Kurulunun, Bahcesehir University
IRB Approval Date
2023-01-20
IRB Approval Number
E-20021704-604.02.02-51326
Analysis Plan

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