Voter Learning and Support for Democratic Institutions (with supporting documentation)

Last registered on September 22, 2024
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Voter Learning and Support for Democratic Institutions (with supporting documentation)
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011480
Initial registration date
May 24, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 06, 2023, 9:12 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
September 22, 2024, 1:20 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Turkey
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Ceren Baysan
Affiliation
University of Toronto
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Daron Acemoglu
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Cevat Aksoy
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Carlos Molina
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-03-13
End date
2024-08-31
Keywords
Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
There is widespread concern about the reported global democratic decline and its implications for economic growth. A critical factor that may determine the future of democracy is voter understanding and engagement in improving the quality of democratic institutions. However, it remains unclear how voters assess these institutions and if they have a shared view of which political parties uphold them. This study aims to evaluate the effect of credible information about democratic institutions on voter behavior and beliefs in Turkey using a large-scale experimental information campaign, electoral data, and survey data.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Acemoglu, Daron et al. 2024. "Voter Learning and Support for Democratic Institutions (with supporting documentation)." AEA RCT Registry. September 22. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11480-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2023-04-13
Intervention End Date
2023-05-13

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
At the ballot box and neighborhood level, our primary outcomes are the 2023 May 14 presidential and general electoral results and the May 28 run off election results. At the individual level, examples of our primary outcome variables include i) survey data on voters' views about the causal relationship between democratic institutions and various outcomes like corruption; ii) views about the quality of democratic institutions and general questions on democratic norms; iii) affective polarization; iv) voting behavior in the May 14 and May 28 general and presidential elections; and v) questions about social interactions and views of respondents' neighbors.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomized the rollout of an information campaign at the neighborhood level. In addition, neighborhoods were randomly assigned to a second treatment arm in which voters were exposed to campaigns with only persuasive content (``slogans"). We also cross-randomized the information source of the two campaigns across three types of sources. Randomization was stratified by six quantiles of the 2018 vote share for the National Alliance to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and to increase statistical power. We selected a well-balanced draw from among 100000 re-randomizations to avoid other chance imbalances for each treatment arm.
Experimental Design Details
We randomized the rollout of an information campaign at the neighborhood level. In addition, neighborhoods were randomly assigned to a second treatment arm in which voters were exposed to campaigns with only persuasive content (``slogans"). We also cross-randomized the information source of the two campaigns across three types of sources. Randomization was stratified by six quantiles of the baseline outcome variable, 2018 vote share for the National Alliance, to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and to increase statistical power. We selected a well-balanced draw from among 100000 re-randomizations to avoid other chance imbalances for each treatment arm.

To estimate spillovers effects of the campaigns at the household and street-level, we embed the neighborhood level randomization with a residential building-level randomization of voters in our baseline sample and their neighboors, and street-level randomization.

We also conducted an online experiment in parallel with an information treatment arm similar to the door-to-door information campaign. The online experiment included additional information treatment arms and a placebo treatment group for each information treatment. This randomization was at the individual level.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Main study: Neighborhood level randomization for the door-to-door campaigns and ballot-box and neighborhood level analyses. Residential unit level randomization for the door-to-door campaigns and survey-based individual-level analyses. Individual level for the online experiment.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Main study: 554 neighborhoods; residential unit randomization: 2872 residential units
Sample size: planned number of observations
Main study: All ballot boxes contained in the 554 neighborhoods (the 2023 electoral data has not been released and so do not know the total number of ballot boxes in our sample yet). Residential-unit level randomization: 3,020 voters
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
252 treatment neighborhoods and 302 control neighborhoods
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee on the Use of Humans as Experimental Subjects, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
IRB Approval Date
2023-01-03
IRB Approval Number
E-4602
IRB Name
Bilimsel Araştırma ve Yayın Etiği Kurulunun, Bahcesehir University
IRB Approval Date
2023-01-20
IRB Approval Number
E-20021704-604.02.02-51326
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

PAP Democracy.pdf

MD5: afdcc4e467dc55c09f9b8c3fc29e01bf

SHA1: ad11b37e8d896b8432cac9059dbb5a8a8cc470d9

Uploaded At: May 24, 2023

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials