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Field
Last Published
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Before
September 25, 2023 02:44 PM
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After
September 27, 2023 01:46 PM
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Primary Outcomes (End Points)
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Before
Our primary survey-based outcome is an indicator variable for high self-reported interest in gang careers.
Our primary behavioral outcome is the take-up rate of offers of information on higher education and other educational resources.
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After
Our primary survey-based outcome is an indicator variable for high self-reported interest in gang careers.
For Experiment 1, we also pre-specified a primary behavioral outcome--the take-up rate of offers of information on higher education and other educational resources. After concluding Experiment 1, it appeared that the information treatment was not persistent enough to change behavior some days to a week after treatment. Prior to launching Experiment 2, we therefore respecified it as a secondary outcome.
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Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
The survey collect data on beliefs about the probability of following four paths: legal careers without high school completion; legal careers requiring high school; legal careers requiring tertiary education; and illegal careers with a gang. The respondents are presented with the four paths and 10 tokens. We ask the respondents to pretend the tokens are 10 clones of themselves and place them according to where they expect their future selves to be at age 25. We repeat this question two additional times that resemble the constraints that some students face: without one career option (legal careers requiring tertiary education); and without two career options (legal careers requiring high school; legal careers requiring tertiary education). We then average the number of clones each student puts in the illegal careers with a gang across the three questions. This average is our survey-based outcome of interest in gang careers. In pilot data, roughly 18% of respondents place 2 or more of their future selves in the gang and roughly 8% place 3 or more. We have created an indicator for this relatively "high" level of interest, with the aim of capturing the (approximately) top decile of risk. We measure this outcome in the survey itself as well as in a subsequent online follow up survey some days after the in-person survey. This follow-up measure (and the effect of time on responses) is a secondary analysis.
The behavioral outcome arises from take-up of a WhatsApp-based message to survey respondents, offering them the opportunity to follow a web link to receive information about educational resources and guidance for higher education. Respondents will have individualized links that will enable us to assess whether they click on the website at all.
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After
The survey collect data on beliefs about the probability of following four paths: legal careers without high school completion; legal careers requiring high school; legal careers requiring tertiary education; and illegal careers with a gang. The respondents are presented with the four paths and 10 tokens. We ask the respondents to pretend the tokens are 10 clones of themselves and place them according to where they expect their future selves to be at age 25. We repeat this question two additional times that resemble the constraints that some students face: without one career option (legal careers requiring tertiary education); and without two career options (legal careers requiring high school; legal careers requiring tertiary education). We then average the number of clones each student puts in the illegal careers with a gang across the three questions. This average is our survey-based outcome of interest in gang careers. In pilot data, roughly 18% of respondents place 2 or more of their future selves in the gang and roughly 8% place 3 or more. We have created an indicator for this relatively "high" level of interest, with the aim of capturing the (approximately) top decile of risk. We measure this outcome in the survey itself as well as in a subsequent online follow up survey some days after the in-person survey. This follow-up measure (and the effect of time on responses) is a secondary analysis.
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Secondary Outcomes (End Points)
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Before
Our main secondary analysis is the "first-stage" effect of the information treatment on posterior beliefs. For Experiment 1, this is a measure of their beliefs about the returns to higher education. We expect to look at the mean error, but also the perceived differential between higher education and low-education career earnings. For Experiment 2, this is an index of perceived status and enjoyment (non-pecuniary benefits) of gang entry.
We also measure both gang interest and posterior beliefs about income in the follow-up survey some days after the in-person survey. This follow-up measure (and the effect of time on responses) is a secondary analysis (as noted above).
For the behavioral outcome, we also expect to examine levels of engagement with the information offered, including time spent on the web page.
The difference in effectiveness between stories and statistics will be a secondary analysis as well, focusing both on posterior beliefs and also gang behavior.
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After
Our main secondary analysis is the "first-stage" effect of the information treatment on posterior beliefs. For Experiment 1, this is a measure of their beliefs about the returns to higher education. We expect to look at the mean error, but also the perceived differential between higher education and low-education career earnings. For Experiment 2, this is an index of perceived status and enjoyment (non-pecuniary benefits) of gang entry.
Another secondary outcome is a behavioral outcome --- take-up of a WhatsApp-based message to survey respondents, offering them the opportunity to follow a web link to receive information about educational resources and guidance for higher education. Respondents will have individualized links that will enable us to assess whether they click on the website at all. For the behavioral outcome, we also expect to examine levels of engagement with the information offered, including time spent on the web page. (Note that this was specified as a primary outcome in Experiment 1 but not in Experiment 2, for reasons discussed above.)
We also measure both gang interest and posterior beliefs about income in the follow-up survey some days after the in-person survey. This follow-up measure (and the effect of time on responses) is a secondary analysis (as noted above).
The difference in effectiveness between stories and statistics in Experiment 1 will be a secondary analysis as well, focusing both on posterior beliefs and also gang behavior.
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