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Trial Title Automating Public Distribution Programs - Experimental Evidence from Ghana's PREMIX Digital Innovation in Ghana - Interventions Targeted at Addressing Leakage (DIGITAL)
Abstract We study Ghana’s Premix Fuel Program – a large “conditional” transfer program subsidizing premix fuel for fishermen in Ghana. Subsidized fuel is hoarded, creating artificial shortages and prices that defy the program’s spirit. We partner with the National Premix Fuel Secretariat, which manages the Program. The Secretariat/Government of Ghana is preparing to rollout a nationwide program that will automate access to subsidized fuel to monitor its distribution and reduce leakages. Some experimentation already took place, so the technical feasibility of the process is not in question. Following our interactions, the Secretariat is willing to randomize across 234 villages (which will be in cohorts) the switch from village committee-based distribution of PREMIX fuel to Automated PREMIX fuel Dispensing and Monitoring System that come with personalized canoe identification cards. We proceed as follows. First, multi-cohort randomization across the 234 villages (315 beaches) will determine the timing of the rollout. Second, survey of fishermen and villagers to track: fuel usage, leakage, poverty, and economic/environmental/social outcomes the automation may improve, including village-wide spillovers and general equilibrium effects. We implement innovative measures for fuel diversion and quality: (i) administrative data on amount of fuel delivered to the village versus survey data, including estimates of black-market prices and quantities. We deploy Quality Assurance Teams to measure the quality of premix fuel in circulation across villages. We also use high-frequency measures of air pollution by (i) installing outdoor monitors and (ii) use available satellite and remote sensing data. We compare two distribution alternatives within Ghana’s PREMIX fuel assistance program: (i) Village committee-based distribution (status quo) vs (ii) Automated dispensing and monitoring system (new monitoring technology). We will use this to document how monitoring technologies improve the distribution and poverty effects of public assistance programs by helping to bring in (or include) poor excluded beneficiaries. Indeed, when and how "changes" in the delivery (or distribution) of public assistance programs reduce poverty is a significant yet poorly understood issue. We embed a randomized trial into a national reform. We study Ghana’s Premix Fuel Program – a large “conditional” transfer program subsidizing premix fuel for fishermen in Ghana. Subsidized fuel is hoarded, creating artificial shortages and prices that defy the program’s spirit. We partner with the National Premix Fuel Secretariat, which manages the Program. The Secretariat/Government of Ghana is preparing to rollout a nationwide program that will automate access to subsidized fuel to monitor its distribution and reduce leakages. Some experimentation already took place, so the technical feasibility of the process is not in question. Following our interactions, the Secretariat is willing to randomize across villages (which will be in phases) the switch from village committee-based distribution of PREMIX fuel (status quo) to Automated PREMIX fuel Dispensing and Monitoring System that come with personalized canoe identification cards (DIGITAL). We proceed as follows. First, multi-phase randomization across the villages (group of landing beaches) will determine the timing of the rollout. Second, survey of fishermen and villagers to track: fuel usage, leakage, poverty, and economic/environmental/social outcomes the automation may improve, including village-wide spillovers and general equilibrium effects. We implement innovative measures for fuel diversion and quality: (i) administrative data on amount of fuel delivered to the village versus survey data, including estimates of black-market prices and quantities. We deploy Quality Assurance Teams to measure the quality of premix fuel in circulation across villages. We also use high-frequency measures of air pollution by (i) installing outdoor monitors and (ii) use available satellite and remote sensing data. We compare two distribution alternatives within Ghana’s PREMIX fuel assistance program: (i) Village committee-based distribution (status quo) vs (ii) Automated dispensing and monitoring system (new monitoring technology: DIGITAL). We will use this to document how monitoring technologies improve the distribution and poverty effects of public assistance programs by helping to bring in (or include) poor excluded beneficiaries. Indeed, when and how "changes" in the delivery (or distribution) of public assistance programs reduce poverty is a significant yet poorly understood issue.
Trial End Date October 31, 2024 December 31, 2026
Last Published January 01, 2024 05:16 AM September 19, 2025 05:53 PM
Intervention (Public) The Secretariat (or government partner) has provided listing of all the landing beaches (N=234 villages, where the beneficiaries are located and the automation program will be deployed). We will randomly assign these fishing villages via a multi-cohort village-level field experiment to examine the general equilibrium effects of the automation program. "Digitization" (or automation) consists of modernized stations, to be constructed and introduced nationally, where fishermen can access subsidized PREMIX fuel. This station includes an (i) automated dispenser system (ADS), which only operates with personalized-biometric cards that will be issued to all canoes / owners, (ii) an office for station manager and landing beach committee (LBC), (iii) toilet facility; along with (iv) a live CCTV camera. Its central goal is to prevent leakages or diversions in the PREMIX program. "Cohort" denotes the set of villages (which contain landing beaches) that the Secretariat has operationally chosen to automate at different milestones -- averaging around 50 villages per cohort. The Secretariat (or government partner) has provided listing of all the villages (a group of landing beaches), where the beneficiaries are located and the automation program will be deployed. We will randomly assign these fishing villages via a multi-phase village-level field experiment to examine the general equilibrium effects of the automation program. Automation consists of modernized stations, to be constructed and introduced nationally, where fishermen can access subsidized PREMIX fuel. This station includes an (i) automated dispenser system (ADS), which only operates with personalized-biometric cards that will be issued to all canoes / owners, (ii) an office for station manager and landing beach committee (LBC), (iii) toilet facility; along with (iv) a live CCTV camera. Its central goal is to prevent leakages or diversions in the PREMIX program. "Phase" denotes the set of villages (which contain landing beaches) that the Secretariat has operationally chosen to automate at different milestones.
Intervention End Date March 31, 2024 December 31, 2026
Experimental Design (Public) In total: 1) Treatment: 60% of villages as Treatment villages (Automate: apply the automation technology "EARLIER" to enforce monitoring of fuel subsidies and avoid diversions of premix fuel; N=~140). 2) Control: 40% of villages as Control villages (Status Quo = no automation until "LATER" after 3-4 months per cohort; N=~94). For each cohort of fishing villages, after 3-4 months, all the control villages will be also digitized. This delayed automation of control villages agrees with the Secretariat’s resource and capacity constraints and have hence agreed to enroll their automation program according this design. We will be able to detect automation effects by measuring differences between the Control and Treatment arms. We will also be able to detect village-wide spillovers and equilibrium effects by (i) comparing beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries in Treatment villages; (ii) measuring differences between villages with more vs less beneficiaries in Treatment villages, including (iii) measuring changes in prices across nearby commercial fuel outlets. In total: 1) Treatment: 60% of villages as Treatment villages (Automate: apply the automation technology "EARLIER" to enforce monitoring of fuel subsidies and avoid diversions of premix fuel). 2) Control: 40% of villages as Control villages (Status Quo = no automation until "LATER" after 5-6 months per phase). For each phase of fishing villages, after 5-6 months, all the control villages will be also digitized. This delayed automation of control villages agrees with the Secretariat’s resource and capacity constraints and have hence agreed to enroll their automation program according this design. We will be able to detect automation effects by measuring differences between the Control and Treatment arms. We will also be able to detect village-wide spillovers and equilibrium effects by (i) comparing beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries in Treatment villages; (ii) measuring differences between villages with more vs less beneficiaries in Treatment villages, including (iii) measuring changes in prices across nearby commercial fuel outlets.
Randomization Method Computer software and covariate-constrained randomization (we have small number of clusters/villages per cohort), ensuring balance on relevant characteristics (Bruhn and McKenzie [2009]; Ivers et al. [2012]) Computer software and covariate-constrained randomization (we have small number of clusters or villages per phase), ensuring balance on relevant characteristics (Bruhn and McKenzie [2009]; Ivers et al. [2012])
Planned Number of Clusters Number of fishing villages: 234 Number of districts (larger administrative units containing multiple villages): 26 Number of regions (larger administrative units containing multiple districts): 9 Number of fishing villages: ~234 Number of districts (larger administrative units containing multiple villages): ~26 Number of regions (larger administrative units containing multiple districts): ~9
Planned Number of Observations Number of fishing villages: 234 *Number of (direct) beneficiaries: 234 villages x about 5 canoe owners per village = around 1,170 owners *Number of (direct) beneficiaries: 234 villages x about 5 canoe employees/workers per village = around 1,170 employees *Number of non-beneficiaries (indirect): 234 villages x about 5 non-beneficiaries per village = around 1,170 individuals not engaged in fishing business. Number of fishing villages: ~234 *Number of (direct) beneficiaries: ~234 villages x about 5 canoe owners per village = around 1,170 owners *Number of (direct) beneficiaries: ~234 villages x about 5 canoe employees/workers per village = around 1,170 employees *Number of non-beneficiaries (indirect): ~234 villages x about 5 non-beneficiaries per village = around 1,170 individuals not engaged in fishing business.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms 140 villages (Treatment); 94 villages (Control program) ~140 villages (Treatment: DIGITAL); ~94 villages (Control program: status quo)
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Other Primary Investigators

Field Before After
Affiliation University of California, Berkeley
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