Natural disasters, aspirations, and labor supply

Last registered on August 10, 2023


Trial Information

General Information

Natural disasters, aspirations, and labor supply
Initial registration date
August 02, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 10, 2023, 12:56 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.



Primary Investigator

UC Berkeley

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich

Additional Trial Information

On going
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
The goal of this study is to examine the effects of natural disasters on households’ aspirations and livelihood decisions in the context of severe floods in Nigeria. Using survey data from agricultural households in Jigawa State, we compare outcomes the year after severe flooding in 2022 in a random sample of 35 flooded communities against 35 non-flooded communities with similar characteristics and flood risk. In addition, we randomly assign survey respondents within communities to receive either information about local flooding history and predicted flood risk or placebo information. We test impacts of community flooding and the information treatment on measures of household labor supply and livelihoods, beliefs about flood risks, aspirations, and cognitive and psychological outcomes. We use the results to evaluate the contribution of psychological pathways for impacts of natural disasters on labor supply and structural transformation.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Biscaye, Pierre, Abdulrasheed Isah and Elena Stacy. 2023. "Natural disasters, aspirations, and labor supply." AEA RCT Registry. August 10.
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Experimental Details


Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Flood risk perceptions, Numerical Stroop and Raven’s matrix task performance, Aspirations, Mental health index (CES-D8), Self-efficacy index (GSE-8), Locus of control, Risk preferences, Any non-farm enterprise, Any non-farm wage employee, Any farm wage employee, Respondent labor supply, Area cultivated with crops, Share household income from agriculture, Any migration of household members, Migration and livelihood change expectations, Flood damages, Food insecurity index, Assets
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We first examine the impacts of floods on farm households in the agricultural season following the flooding, using quasi-random variation in which communities were flooded during major floods in 2022. We combine spatial data on ex ante flood risk provided by the Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) and ex post flood realizations provided by the Jigawa State Emergency Management Authority (Jigawa SEMA) with household survey data. To estimate impacts of flooding, we compare households in communities that experienced flooding in 2022 to nearby similar communities that did not.

We also cross-randomize an information treatment during the survey in which household respondents receive either information on local flood history and predictions of future flood risk, or placebo information on the history of the state of Jigawa. We will compare survey outcomes for treatment and control respondents to examine the impact of flood information.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Random number generation within SurveyCTO
Randomization Unit
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
70 communities
Sample size: planned number of observations
800 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 households control, 200 households T1, 200 households T2, 200 households T3
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UC Berkeley IRB
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Is the intervention completed?
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials