Can information change what you think that should be done about the housing crisis?

Last registered on August 16, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Can information change what you think that should be done about the housing crisis?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011914
Initial registration date
August 10, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 16, 2023, 10:11 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Portugal
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
João Pereira Dos Santos
Affiliation
ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-08-14
End date
2023-09-10
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Portugal experienced one of the largest housing price increases in the EU since 2015. In this study, we analyze the support for housing public policies and regulations in the context of the housing crisis in Portugal. With this objective, we plan to implement a large-scale online experiment conducted to a representative sample of the Portuguese population.
We start by eliciting quantitative beliefs about the evolution of statistic indicators between 2015 and 2022. Then, for half of the sample, randomly drawn, we provide them the comparison between their perceptions and the official numbers provided by Statistics Portugal and the Eurostat.
Our main research question is to study how presenting quantitative reliable information about the severity of the housing crisis and key related events affects public policy preferences. We note that, for all these policy actions, we provide simple trade-off situations so that respondents can easily consider both the benefits and the costs of their choices.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Pereira Dos Santos, João. 2023. "Can information change what you think that should be done about the housing crisis?." AEA RCT Registry. August 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11914-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We ask quantitative questions to respondents of a survey to elicit their perceptions and beliefs about the evolution of real estate market in Portugal. Half of the survey will then receive a treatment that consists on the provision of information, comparing their answers with official numbers.
We then ask for what respondents think that should be done to curb the negative impacts of the housing crisis in Portugal.
Intervention Start Date
2023-08-14
Intervention End Date
2023-09-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
5 different sets of outcomes that are related to:
1. Public investments
2. Regulation
3. Restrictions on foreign investments
4. Architectural restrictions
5. Taxation.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
We try to analyze policy preferences from different angles and covering several topics related to real estate.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
All individuals in our sample wilI be asked the following questions: Thinking about the evolution of the housing situation in Portugal between 2015 and 2022. Please indicate how much you think has increased in percentage terms…
1. … the average purchase price of houses for family housing?
2. … the number of houses available for family housing?
3. … the total resident population?
4. … the number of houses operating as short-term rentals?
5. … the foreign population residing in the resident country?
6. … the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation?

The order of these questions is randomized. Then all individuals will be randomly assigned to one of the following two groups:

Treatment: This group obtains a treatment that consists on the provision of information on the previous six questions as follows:

1. According to Eurostat data, between 2015 and 2022, the average purchase price of houses for family housing in Portugal increased by 90%. Your response to this question was _%.
2. According to Statistics Portugal estimates, between 2015 and 2022, the number of family dwellings increased by around 2%. Your response to this question was _%.
3. According to Statistics Portugal data, between 2015 and 2022, the total resident population increased by 1%. Your response to this question was _%.
4. According to Statistics Portugal estimates, between 2015 and 2022, the number of short-term holiday rentals increased by 126%. Your response to this question was _%.
5. According to Statistics Portugal data, between 2015 and 2022, the foreign population with a residence permit in the country increased by 104%. These numbers represent, in 2022, 7.5% of the population residing in Portugal. Your response to this question was _%.
6. According to Statistics Portugal data, between 2015 and 2022, the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation increased by 31%. Your response to this question was _%.

Control: This group does not receive the treatment.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Close to 500 in the treatment and 500 in the control group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials