Inflation media coverage and inflation expectations

Last registered on October 04, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation media coverage and inflation expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011958
Initial registration date
September 20, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 04, 2023, 1:33 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Sweden
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Marcel Garz
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Benjamin Larin
PI Affiliation
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-09-25
End date
2023-10-20
Keywords
Behavior, Other
Additional Keywords
media, inflation, expectations formation
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of news coverage about inflation on consumers’ inflation expectations in 30 European countries between 2017 and 2023. Specifically, we use a randomized controlled trial to test whether sensational headlines (i.e., those mentioning that inflation or prices have reached a milestone, broken some historical record, or surpassed some round-number threshold) are more likely to i) attract consumers' attention and ii) lead consumers to expect increasing inflation.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Garz, Marcel and Benjamin Larin. 2023. "Inflation media coverage and inflation expectations." AEA RCT Registry. October 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11958-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants are randomly exposed to two versions of inflation-related news headlines, one using a neutral/non-sensational phrasing and the other being framed sensationally.
Intervention Start Date
2023-09-25
Intervention End Date
2023-10-13

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) degree of interest in reading the inflation news article (scale 1 to 5); 2) probability of expecting increasing inflation in the next 12 months (binary); 3) quantitative estimate of annual inflation rate (percent)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Participants are exposed to five fictional news headlines. Four of these headlines are unrelated to inflation (i.e., they address issues in culture, politics, society, and sports). The fifth headline is randomly drawn from eight headlines mentioning high prices or increasing inflation. Each headline comes in two versions, one using neutral/non-sensational phrasing and the other being framed sensationally. Each participant is exposed to exactly one inflation headline, where the treatment status (sensational vs. non-sensational) is randomized. We use eight pairs of inflation headlines to strengthen the generalizability of the results and avoid idiosyncratic effects from individual terms used in a headline. The order of presentation of the five headlines (i.e., four unrelated to inflation and one random inflation headline) is randomized, too. Participants are asked to read the headlines and rate how interested they would be to read the story, using a scale from 1 (not interested at all) to 5 (very interested). This information will then be used to estimate whether a sensational version of an inflation headline attracts more interest than the non-sensational version, with both types listed together with headlines on other topics, to simulate a choice environment that mirrors a typical news site.

In addition, participants are asked to complete a short quiz. It takes place on a separate page after reading and rating the headlines, but participants are informed about this quiz before reading the headlines to incentivize them to pay attention. The quiz consists of three multiple-choice questions and an open-ended question, all of which are presented in a random order. Two of the multiple-choice questions are related to the non-inflation headlines. They have precisely one factually correct answer, based on which we assess participants’ attentiveness. The third multiple-choice question mirrors the European Business and Consumer Survey item about participants’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months. The fourth (open-ended) question asks participants for their quantitative estimate of the inflation rate for the next 12 months. Analyzing the answers to the inflation-related questions allows us to determine whether the sensationalist version of an inflation headline increases the chances that participants expect higher inflation rates than when they are exposed to the non-sensational version.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
coin flip
Randomization Unit
individual survey participants
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
ca. 2,000 survey participants
Sample size: planned number of observations
ca. 2,000 survey participants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
ca. 1,000 survey participants in control group and ca. 1,000 survey participants in treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
JU Research Ethics Board
IRB Approval Date
2023-09-18
IRB Approval Number
JU 2023/4007
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials