Tail Risk Neglect: Part 2

Last registered on September 04, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Tail Risk Neglect: Part 2
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011996
Initial registration date
August 28, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 04, 2023, 6:24 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Johannes Beutel
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Valentin Stockerl
PI Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-08-14
End date
2025-08-01
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Subjective Beliefs, Tail Risk Neglect, Memory
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the perception of tail risks in a large sample of representative households. This study extends a previous RCT registered under the ID AEARCTR-0009917 (results available at https://www.johannes-beutel.com). In this new RCT we are particularly interested in the role of related memories, and the role of seemingly unrelated personal experiences for tail probabilities and magnitudes. Most of this wave is framed in terms of stock market crashes.
External Link(s)
Bundesbank Survey of Consumer Expectations Website

Registration Citation

Citation
Beutel, Johannes and Valentin Stockerl. 2023. "Tail Risk Neglect: Part 2." AEA RCT Registry. September 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11996-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We field a series of questions related to memories, experiences, and tail beliefs, in particular related to large stock market movements.
Intervention Start Date
2023-08-14
Intervention End Date
2023-09-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- number of ATMs, i.e. cash machines (as a proxy for estimating small probabilities even in domains without risk)
- list of experiences personally encountered
- list of events over the last 60 years (group 2-4: stock market related, group 3: society, culture, sports)
- DAX change in the course of each of these events
- conditional magnitude
- probability
- Scenario Part 1
- Scenario Part 2
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
THE FULL QUESTIONNAIRE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEBSITE OF THE BUNDESBANK SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (SEE LINK) SHORTLY AFTER THE FIELD PERIOD OF THE AUGUST 2023 WAVE.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents are randomly assigned into different groups. One group receives an information treatment. The other groups receive our survey questions in different ordering (the ordering of certain questions acting as a treatment).
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization done by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,000 per treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan