Abstract
The Somaliland region in Somalia has faced a protracted series of crises, including drought and political instability, lasting years. Locals have faced famine and may soon – according to forecasts – face acute flooding. Humanitarian agencies will be providing relief in the event of flooding events in the upcoming wet season (September-December 2023).
However, there is little evidence on when the most effective moment to provide this relief is. Typically relief reaches households after flooding events, but with advances in flood forecasting technology and emerging evidence on “anticipatory action”, there is reason to believe that relief delivered to households who are likely to be affected before a flooding event may be more effective.
In this (pilot) project we experimentally vary when subsequent support is provided and then compare outcomes (food security, income, and household behaviour) across two treatment arms: one group will receive a lump sum transfer before the shock (triggered by satellite-based forecasts) and a second group will receive the lump sum after the shock. Both groups will receive a small cash transfer just after the baseline to address immediate food security needs. Participating households will be visited twice, once at registration into the programme (Baseline) and once at the end of the rainy season (Endline) to collect information about key outcomes and how they used the support they received.