Time Preferences and Expectations

Last registered on October 04, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Time Preferences and Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012195
Initial registration date
September 27, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 04, 2023, 3:38 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Australia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Benjamin Young
Affiliation
UTS
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Elif Incekara-Hafalir
PI Affiliation
University of Technology Sydney
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Aleksandra Erakhtina
PI Affiliation
University of Technology Sydney
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-09-27
End date
2023-12-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This is a pilot study investigating whether expectations on the timing of payments affect elicited time preferences.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Erakhtina, Aleksandra, Elif Incekara-Hafalir and Benjamin Young. 2023. "Time Preferences and Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. October 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12195-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We employ a 2x2x2 design for our pilot study.
Intervention Start Date
2023-09-27
Intervention End Date
2023-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Measure of discount rate between today and 8 weeks
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Risk preferences
Performance on Cognitive Reflection Test
Demographic Information
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Subjects are asked to make choices between payments to be received today and payments to be received 8 weeks in the future. They make these choices within 1 of 8 treatments. Subjects then complete a post-experiment survey, asking for demographic information, measures of risk preferences, and answers to a cognitive reflection task.
Experimental Design Details
Subjects are randomised into 1 of the 8 treatments described above. They then complete a time-preference elicitation task which is the staircase method as employed in the Global Preference Survey (GPS) of Falk et al., (2023). We ask subjects to complete four different versions of the staircase method: one with today payment fixed at $20, one with today payment fixed at $11, one with future payment fixed at $20, and one with future payment fixed at $19. We then ask subjects to complete a post-experiment survey, asking for demographic information, measures of risk preferences, and answers to a cognitive reflection task.

Our objective is to compare elicited time preferences across the treatments. In particular, we are interested in whether elicited time preferences are different in the Today treatment versus the Future treatment, as we are interested in whether expectations regarding the timing of payment affect elicited time preferences. We are also interested in the role that other factors play in setting these expectations, such as the completion of a real effort task to earn the exogenous payment, as well as the probability that the exogenous payment constitutes the payoff of a subject from the experiment.

Depending on treatment arm, there is a probability (either 50% or 90%) that a subject's payoff from the experiment is equal to their exogenous payment (either $20 today or $20 in 8 weeks). With remaining probability, the subject's payoff from the experiment is equal to one randomly chosen choice in the time-preference elicitation task. In this pilot, 1 in 10 subjects will be chosen to receive their payoff from the experiment as a real payment. All subjects will receive a participation fee of approximately $6 (AUD).
Randomization Method
Randomisation done by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
240 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
240 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
30 individual in each treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UTS Behavioural Lab
IRB Approval Date
2023-09-26
IRB Approval Number
ETH23-8040
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials