AEA RCT Registry

Trial Information

General Information

Title

The effect of self-confidence and expectations on performance

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0001228

Initial registration date

May 07, 2016

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

May 07, 2016, 4:38 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

United States of America

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Plamen Nikolov

Affiliation

State University of New York (Binghamton) & Harvard University

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2016-05-01

End date

2017-04-01

Keywords

Education, Labor

Additional Keywords

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Abstract

There is ample evidence that emotions affect performance. Positive emotions can improve performance, while negative ones can diminish it. For example, the fears induced by the possibility of failure or of negative evaluations have physiological consequences (shaking, loss of concentration) that may impair performance in sports, on stage, or at school. There is also ample evidence that individuals have distorted recollection of past events and distorted attributions of the causes of success or failure. Recollection of good events or successes is typically easier than recollection of bad ones or failures. Successes tend to be attributed to intrinsic aptitudes or effort, while failures are attributed to bad luck. In addition, these attributions are often reversed when judging the performance of others.

Compte and Postlewaite (2004) incorporate the phenomenon that emotions affect performance into an otherwise standard decision theoretic model and show that in a world where performance depends on emotions, biases in information processing enhance welfare.

We test their empirical predictions of the Compte and Postlewaite (2004) model using the study design described below.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Nikolov, Plamen. 2016. "The effect of self-confidence and expectations on performance." AEA RCT Registry. May 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.1228-1.0

Former Citation

Nikolov, Plamen. 2016. "The effect of self-confidence and expectations on performance." AEA RCT Registry. May 07. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1228/history/8137

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

In two subsequent sessions, subjects will be given a task to solve within 30-min.

Each subject will be randomized into five treatment groups as described:

Task Target: High or Low
Piecemeal Rate (for bonus/penalty if target not reached): High or Low
Control group

Each subject’s pay will be based on the following function:

Subject’s pay = Task performance + Target performance

● Instructions for Phase 1 will be given. Instructions will highlight the sample tasks, examples and opportunity for subjects to ask any questions.
● Phase 1: We elicit for all subjects a proxy for “confidence” level regarding their performance on the tasks.
○ Then, subjects perform a task within a 30-min timeframe. Their task is scored and given an objective score.
○ Throughout 30-min session, targets will be announced to subjects every 5 minutes.
○ We elicit subject’s subjective assessment of performance from Phase 1; We elicit brief measure of “confidence” and “concentration”
● Phase 2: Subjects perform the task again within a 30-min timeframe
● Phase 3: We administer a short survey collecting socio-economic and risk-preference elicitation, subject’s subjective assessment of performance from Phase 1 and 2.

We will study the effect of treatment group randomization on task performance in Phase 2.

Intervention Start Date

2016-05-20

Intervention End Date

2017-04-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Labor productivity, Task performance

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

In two subsequent sessions, subjects will be given a task to solve within 30-min.

Each subject will be randomized into five treatment groups as described:

Task Target: High or Low
Piecemeal Rate (for bonus/penalty if target not reached): High or Low
Control group

Each subject’s pay will be based on the following function:

Subject’s pay = Task performance + Target performance

● Instructions for Phase 1 will be given. Instructions will highlight the sample tasks, examples and opportunity for subjects to ask any questions.
● Phase 1: We elicit for all subjects a proxy for “confidence” level regarding their performance on the tasks.
○ Then, subjects perform a task within a 30-min timeframe. Their task is scored and given an objective score.
○ Throughout 30-min session, targets will be announced to subjects every 5 minutes.
○ We elicit subject’s subjective assessment of performance from Phase 1; We elicit brief measure of “confidence” and “concentration”
● Phase 2: Subjects perform the task again within a 30-min timeframe
● Phase 3: We administer a short survey collecting socio-economic and risk-preference elicitation, subject’s subjective assessment of performance from Phase 1 and 2.

We will study the effect of treatment group randomization on task performance in Phase 2.

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

Computer

Randomization Unit

individual

Was the treatment clustered?

No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

500 subjects

Sample size: planned number of observations

500

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

500

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

IRB Approval Date

IRB Approval Number

Analysis Plan

The effect of self-confidence and expectations on performance

Pre-Trial

General Information

Locations

Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Registration Citation

Interventions

Primary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes

Experimental Design

Experiment Characteristics

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

Post-Trial

Study Withdrawal

Intervention

Data Publication

Program Files

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials