Time Preferences and Expectations

Last registered on October 20, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Time Preferences and Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012280
Initial registration date
October 12, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 17, 2023, 1:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
October 20, 2023, 9:31 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Australia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Benjamin Young
Affiliation
UTS
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Elif Incekara-Hafalir
PI Affiliation
University of Technology Sydney
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Aleksandra Erakhtina
PI Affiliation
University of Technology Sydney
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-10-13
End date
2024-09-30
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
D01, D15, D84, D91
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Expectations have been shown to play an important role in shaping individual behavior. However, little work has investigated the role that expectations regarding the timing of outcomes play in intertemporal decision making. We conduct a study to in which we exogenously manipulate subjects' expectations of when they will receive payment. Our objective is to test whether the elicited time preferences of individuals are affected by these expectations in a way that is consistent with our hypotheses, which are motivated by a simple application of the theory of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences (Koszegi and Rabin, 2006; 2007) applied to intertemporal choice problems.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Erakhtina, Aleksandra, Elif Incekara-Hafalir and Benjamin Young. 2023. "Time Preferences and Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. October 20. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12280-2.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our experiment has a control condition and two treatment conditions. Within subject, we also provide variations of the time preference elicitation task that we use.
Intervention (Hidden)
Our experimental design has been within-subject and across-subject variation.

Within-subject: in order to elicit time preferences, we utilize versions of the staircase method as used in the Global Preference Survey of Falk et al., (2023). Within a staircase task, subjects make five choices between smaller amounts of money to be paid today and larger amount to be paid in 8 weeks. Our within-subject variation is that subjects complete four different versions of the staircase task.

Across-subject: subjects will be randomly assigned to one of three conditions: control, a today treatment, and a future treatment.

1) Control: subjects are asked to complete the time preference elicitation tasks in a standard manner with no manipulation of expectations.
2) Today treatment: In this treatment we manipulate subjects' expectations towards being paid today. Specifically, there is a 90% chance that subjects are paid $20 today regardless of their choices in the experiment. Instead, with remaining probability of 10% subjects are paid according to one random choice made in the time preference elicitation task.
subjects are told that there is a 90% chance that they will be paid $20 today regardless of their choices in the experiment.
3) Future treatment: In this treatment we manipulate subjects' expectations towards being paid in 8 weeks. Specifically, there is a 90% chance that subjects are paid $20 in 8 weeks regardless of their choices in the experiment. Instead, with remaining probability of 10% subjects are paid according to one random choice made in the time preference elicitation task.
Intervention Start Date
2023-10-13
Intervention End Date
2024-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Measures of patience level between Today and 8 Weeks
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Subjects are recruited to complete our experiment online (run using Qualtrics). In the experiment, subjects are asked to make choices between payments to be received today and payments to be received 8 weeks in the future. They make these choices either in control or one of two treatments. Subjects then complete a post-experiment survey, asking for demographic information, measures of risk preferences, and answers to a cognitive reflection task.
Experimental Design Details
We recruit participants to our experiment through the SONA system used at the University of Queensland and/or the ORSEE system used at UTS. Those who sign up to participate in SONA/ORSEE are provided a link that takes them to our experiment, to be completed in Qualtrics. We have updated our collection process to a synchronous online manner due to technical issues we initially faced with the asynchronous method we attempted to employ (we will not include this data in our main study but will make it available to anyone upon request). Subjects are randomised into either control or one of the two treatments described above. They then complete a series of four time-preference elicitation tasks, which are variations of the staircase method as employed in the Global Preference Survey of Falk et al., (2023). We ask subjects to complete four different versions of the staircase method: one with today payment fixed at $11 and one with future payment fixed at $19 (randomised which is presented first and which is presented second) as well as one with today payment fixed at $20 and one with future payment fixed at $20 (randomised which is presented third and which is presented fourth). In total, subjects are asked 20 questions related to time preferences (5 for each version of the staircase task). We then ask subjects to complete a post-experiment survey, asking for demographic information, measures of risk preferences, and answers to a cognitive reflection task.

Our objective is to compare elicited time preferences across the treatments. In particular, we are interested in whether elicited time preferences are different in the Today treatment versus the Future treatment, as we are interested in whether expectations regarding the timing of payment affect elicited time preferences. We are also interested in comparing those preferences elicited in the Control group relative to those in Treatment as suggestive evidence of whether subjects bring implicit expectations regarding the timing of payments into experiments.

Depending on treatment arm, there is a probability of 90% that subjects will receive their exogenous payment (either $20 Today or $20 in 8 weeks). With remaining probability of 10%, the subject's payoff from the experiment is equal to one randomly chosen choice in the time-preference elicitation task. In control, instead, subjects are simply paid for one randomly selected choice in the time-preference elicitation task.
Randomization Method
Randomisation done by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
240 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
240 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
80 in control, 80 in Today treatment, 80 in Future treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
minimum detectable effect size is d=0.45 with 80% power and alpha=0.05
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UTS HREC (Business Local Research Office)
IRB Approval Date
2022-07-04
IRB Approval Number
ETH22-7315
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials