Long-run effects of welfare reform experiments: Portland and Jobs First

Last registered on October 30, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Long-run effects of welfare reform experiments: Portland and Jobs First
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012321
Initial registration date
October 18, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 30, 2023, 9:49 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
MDRC

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of California Berkeley

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
1993-02-01
End date
2025-02-01
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
The Learning from Administrative Data (LAD) initiative seeks to extend the evidence of the long-term effects of various welfare-to-work programs evaluated in the 1990s, programs that included components such as earnings supplements, child care subsidies, work requirements,
time limits on benefit receipt, and education services. This study focuses on two programs. The first is Connecticut Jobs First, one of the first welfare reform initiatives to impose statewide time limits on welfare receipt. These time limits were coupled with financial incentives designed to encourage work. The second is the NEWWS program in Portland, which provided employment and support services to a broad cross section of individuals receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), the prior name for what is now called Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or TANF. This study will merge data for the study participants with multiple sources of demographic and administrative data in order to assess effects on employment, earnings, fertility, and mortality. The primary focus will be to assess effects on these outcomes during adulthood for individuals who were children during the program period, although effects will also be estimated for selected outcomes for the adult participants.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hoynes, Hilary and Cynthia Miller. 2023. "Long-run effects of welfare reform experiments: Portland and Jobs First." AEA RCT Registry. October 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12321-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Jobs First represented several changes from the traditional AFDC program in place at the time
of the study. First, Jobs First included a 21-month limit on benefit receipt, after which the
family’s cash grant was discontinued unless an extension or exemption was granted. Under the
existing AFDC program, families did not face any time limits on benefit receipt. Second, Jobs
First included unusually generous financial work incentives, allowing working recipients to
retain their full grant (e.g., disregarding all earned income) until their earnings reach the federal
poverty level. In contrast, AFDC recipients were subject to the standard earned income
disregard (of $120 per month, through month 12 and $90 thereafter). Finally, Jobs First
required recipients to participate in employment-related services targeted towards quick job
placement. Families receiving AFDC, in contrast, were subject to Connecticut’s preexisting
welfare-to-work program, which had broader exemption criteria (for work activities) and a
somewhat stronger focus on education and training.

The NEWWS program in Portland provided employment and support services to a broad cross
section of individuals receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), the prior name
for what is now called Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or TANF. As in the other
NEWWS sites, recipients were required to participate in program activities or face reductions in
their welfare grants. The Portland program had a clear employment focus. Unlike the other NEWWS sites, it used a mixed strategy for matching enrollees to initial activities: For more job-ready individuals, they use the same approach as other employment-focused programs by trying to move people into jobs relatively quickly. Case managers, however, had more discretion to assign some people to short-term skill-building activities first. Also, job search participants in Portland, unlike in the other programs, were counseled to wait for a good job (that is, one that paid at least about 25 percent higher than the minimum wage and offered a good chance for stable employment) as opposed to taking the first job they were offered.

Intervention Start Date
1993-02-01
Intervention End Date
1999-02-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
adult earnings of participants' children.
examined for each program separately.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The study will address the following confirmatory research questions:
1. Did the program affect the earnings of participants’ children, measured at age
21 and older?
2. Did the program affect the earnings of participants’ children who were under
age 6 at randomization, measured at age 21 and older?2

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Did the programt lead to effects on employment, teen fertility, and mortality in adulthood,
for individuals who were children during the study period?
2. Did the program generate long-run impacts on employment, earnings and mortality of
adult participants?
3. Did the program generate long-run impacts on participation in government assistance
programs (e.g., Medicaid, subsidized housing) among adult participants and their
children?
4. Did the program impact geographic mobility and neighborhood characteristics for adult
participants and their children?
5. Do the long-term effects vary across subgroups, including groups defined by children’s
gender and age at randomization and parents’ employment history, welfare receipt
history, and education level? Are the average effects estimated for the full sample
similar across the distribution of outcomes, e.g., does the program lead to larger
changes in earnings at the bottom of the earnings distribution?
6. Do the long-term effects on earnings and employment of individuals who were children
during the study period vary by age in adulthood?
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Both programs were evaluated using randomized controlled trials.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization conducted by compter.
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4803 adults and 7400 children for Jobs First
5547 adults and 8500 children for Portland
Sample size: planned number of observations
4803 adults and 7400 children for Jobs First 5547 adults and 8500 children for Portland
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
3600 control, 3800 treatment for children in Jobs First
2407 control, 2396 treatment for adults in Jobs First
3100 control, 5400 treatment for children in Portland
2018 control, 3529 treatment for adults in Portland
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Jobs First: $650 earnings, 0.030 employment, and 0.063 min det effect size Portland: 630 earnings, 0.029 employment, and 0.057 min det effect size
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
MDRC
IRB Approval Date
2018-03-15
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

anaysis plan Jobs First

MD5: e8f057f4127690ae5708f6d2fa45a4e3

SHA1: 3e4a6787de4a31213890e817737dbc2a500c90b7

Uploaded At: October 18, 2023

analysis plan Portland

MD5: be83c630a10818c622b2154cf9282085

SHA1: d36147a43b23e2793c6486b63d5ba6b3bb2dc444

Uploaded At: October 18, 2023