Tail Risk Neglect: Part 3

Last registered on January 19, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Tail Risk Neglect: Part 3
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012433
Initial registration date
November 03, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 19, 2024, 1:56 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Johannes Beutel
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Valentin Stockerl
PI Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-11-15
End date
2026-11-30
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Tail risks
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the link between perceived tail risks and decisions in a large sample of representative households. This study extends a previous RCT registered under the ID AEARCTR-0009917 (results available at https://www.johannes-beutel.com). In this new RCT we are particularly interested in the role of tail beliefs for decisions. More precisely, we investigate the link between the perceived risk of various tail events vis-a-vis portfolio allocations and consumption decisions.
External Link(s)
Bundesbank Survey of Consumer Expectations Website

Registration Citation

Citation
Beutel, Johannes and Valentin Stockerl. 2024. "Tail Risk Neglect: Part 3." AEA RCT Registry. January 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12433-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Randomized treatment variation occurs in the form of hypothetical vignettes, that is respondents are asked to assume the probability of a tail event was x % instead of y %. We then ask how they would change their portfolio allocation and their consumption expenditure across various categories.
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-15
Intervention End Date
2023-11-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Portfolio Allocation, Consumption Expenditure
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Randomized treatment variation occurs in the form of hypothetical vignettes, that is respondents are asked to assume the probability of a tail event was x % instead of y %. We then ask how they would change their portfolio allocation and their consumption expenditure across various categories.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4,000 respondents
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,000 respondents
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan