Energy Demand Flexibiliity at Scale

Last registered on December 06, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Energy Demand Flexibiliity at Scale
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012451
Initial registration date
November 22, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 06, 2023, 7:47 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Southern California

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-11-12
End date
2024-09-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The Centre for Net Zero (CNZ), in partnership with Octopus Energy, will undertake a series of field trials during Octopus Energy’s second Saving Sessions (winter 2023 - 2024). The trials will rigorously evaluate how and why the program itself works to reduce customers’ energy consumption during hours of high grid constraint.

We endeavor to build on the success of the 2022-2023 Saving Sessions, which showcased domestic customers' willingness to curtail energy consumption during peak periods, and CNZ’s analysis thereof (Jacob et al., 2023). To do so, we will implement a randomized encouragement design to evaluate the impact of customer participation in Saving Sessions.

As the share of renewable energy in the grid continues to grow, the need for effective energy balancing becomes increasingly important. Leveraging customers' willingness to curtail energy consumption during peak periods (i.e., demand flexibility) has the potential to prevent blackouts, reduce reliance on polluting energy sources that would otherwise be called for in timers of high demand, and reduce the need for expensive balancing infrastructure and resources. For these reasons, domestic electricity flexibility is necessary to achieve a fully renewable energy system. We thus deem it of high importance to accurately assess its impact through a randomized controlled trial.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Metcalfe, Robert. 2023. "Energy Demand Flexibiliity at Scale." AEA RCT Registry. December 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12451-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-12
Intervention End Date
2024-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Electricity Consumption in kWh per half-hour: We will analyze the electricity consumption (kWh per half-hour) of participating customers during and around Saving Sessions.
2. Sign-Up to OctoPlus: We will analyze whether the customer has signed up to OctoPlus by each Saving Session (exact Session dates and times will be determined during winter 2023-2024 by National Grid ESO and are not yet known).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Randomize households to:
(i) invitation to the treatment from the beginning of Savings Sessions;
(ii) invitation to the treatment staggered through the Winter;
(iii) control group who are not encouraged to sign-up to Savings Sessions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
We will implement stratified random sampling before randomizing the treatments. This means that we will categorize customers into distinct groups based on their:
(i) GSP (Grid Supply Point) group (there are 14 in the UK – see https://data.nationalgrideso.com/system/gis-boundaries-for-gb-dno-license-areas); and
(ii) Whether the customer is a ‘credit’ or a prepayment customer (two categories).

The randomization will be done on a computer.
Randomization Unit
The household/customer level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
2.7 million households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
(i) invitation to the treatment from the beginning of Savings Sessions - 2,580,001 customers
(ii) invitation to the treatment staggered through the Winter - between 60,000 and 80,000 customers
(iii) control group who are not encouraged to sign-up at all to Savings Sessions - between 40,000 and 60,000 customers.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Based on a treatment group of 2.6 million customers and a control group with 120,000 customers, we find an Intent-to-Treat (ITT) Minimum Detectable Effect Size (MDES) of 1.9%, equivalent to a change of 0.00727 kWh in electricity consumption. Additionally, the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) MDES is equivalent to a 3.1% change, corresponding to 0.01172 kWh.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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