Biased belief updating and memory: The role of confidence

Last registered on November 17, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Biased belief updating and memory: The role of confidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012470
Initial registration date
November 08, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 17, 2023, 7:53 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Ju Yeong Hong
Affiliation
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Julia Baumann
PI Affiliation
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
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PI Name
Hedda Nielsen
PI Affiliation
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-11-09
End date
2024-10-09
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Belief updating, Confidence, Bayes' rule, Motivated beliefs
JEL code(s)
C11, C90, D83, D91
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project investigates the role of over- and underconfidence in belief updating and recall of feedback. While previous research finds mixed results for how positive and negative feedback impacts belief updating and recall, the overall focus has been on how (asymmetric) belief updating affects individuals’ confidence. Instead, we ask how exogenously inducing high or low confidence impacts feedback processing. In addition, we study whether confidence and its impacts on belief updating have persistent effects on the recall of feedback.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baumann, Julia, Ju Yeong Hong and Hedda Nielsen. 2023. "Biased belief updating and memory: The role of confidence." AEA RCT Registry. November 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12470-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-09
Intervention End Date
2024-10-09

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Beliefs about one's relative performance, recall of feedback.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our experiment consists of two sessions. In Session 1, participants perform an IQ-type task; we elicit beliefs about relative performance (prior), provide them with feedback on performance, and elicit beliefs about relative performance once more (posterior). In Session 2, participants are asked to recall the feedback received in the first session. We also measure belief updating in a non-ego-relevant setting.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
by computer
Randomization Unit
at individual level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
450 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
450
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
225
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The ethics committee of the School of Business and Economics of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
IRB Approval Date
2022-12-07
IRB Approval Number
No. 2022-09
Analysis Plan

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