Inflation Expectations and Political Affiliation

Last registered on December 01, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation Expectations and Political Affiliation
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012529
Initial registration date
November 17, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 01, 2023, 4:51 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Samir Huseynov
Affiliation
Auburn University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-11-17
End date
2023-11-30
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral, Finance & Microfinance, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conducted an online study to capture US consumers' inflation expectation and its determinants. We use Binarized Scoring Rule for a discrete distribution to measure priors and posteriors about future CPI inflation rate. We also design treatments between the elicitation of priors and posteriors. Our treatments entail combined news excerpts from news media outlets with positive and negative tones. In some treatments we reveal CNN or FOX news logos as one of the news sources. We expect political affiliation and news source's political inclinations to affect inflation expectations.

H1: Republicans and Democrats will be more like to update their inflation beliefs when facing Fox and CNN logos in the news excerpts, respectively.

H2: We also expect this update magnitude will be higher when individual political affiliation overlaps with the news source's political inclinations.

H3. We expect inflation belief updates will also affect food consumption and financial planning. We expect higher inflation will pronounce in more restrained and conservative spending.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Huseynov, Samir. 2023. "Inflation Expectations and Political Affiliation." AEA RCT Registry. December 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12529-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our treatments entail combined news excerpts from news media outlets with positive and negative tones. In some treatments we reveal CNN or FOX news logos as one of the news sources. We expect political affiliation and news source's political inclinations to affect inflation expectations.
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-17
Intervention End Date
2023-11-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Logit belief updates a la Mobius et al (2022) and their influence of food consumption and financial planning.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conducted an online study to capture US consumers' inflation expectation and its determinants. We use Binarized Scoring Rule for a discrete distribution to measure priors and posteriors about future CPI inflation rate. We also design treatments between the elicitation of priors and posteriors. Our treatments entail combined news excerpts from news media outlets with positive and negative tones. In some treatments we reveal CNN or FOX news logos as one of the news sources. We expect political affiliation and news source's political inclinations to affect inflation expectations.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
by computer
Randomization Unit
respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~1100
Sample size: planned number of observations
~1100
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~250
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials