The Dark Side of Overconfidence

Last registered on December 20, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Dark Side of Overconfidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012571
Initial registration date
December 10, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 20, 2023, 9:24 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Christoph Drobner
Affiliation
Technical University Munich
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Yesim Orhun
PI Affiliation
University of Michigan
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-12-10
End date
2025-01-15
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Overconfidence, Effort, Misguided Learning, Self-Serving Attribution Bias
JEL code(s)
C91, D83, D84
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how (miscalibrated) beliefs about one’s ability causally affect optimal actions through (misguided) inferences about an external fundamental. Our experimental paradigm ensures that the causal impact of beliefs on effort solely operates through inferences about an external fundamental to eliminate any motivational confounds arising from learning about one’s ability.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Drobner, Christoph and Yesim Orhun. 2023. "The Dark Side of Overconfidence." AEA RCT Registry. December 20. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12571-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
see pre-analysis plan
Intervention Start Date
2023-12-10
Intervention End Date
2025-01-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Performance priors
Returns to effort beliefs
Decoding task score
Decoding task time
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Performance priors = participants' probabilistic beliefs about the likelihood that they rank in the top half of the logic quiz among a group of 4 subjects, including themselves.
Returns to effort beliefs = probabilistic beliefs about the likelihood that evaluator 1 is the performance evaluator.
Decoding task score = number of correctly solved decoding tasks.
Decoding task time = time spent on the decoding tasks.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
see pre-analysis plan
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Individual level randomization
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~2000
Sample size: planned number of observations
~2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~500 Both high: Evaluator 1: $2, Evaluator 2: $2
~500 Both low: Evaluator 1: $0, Evaluator 2: $0
~500 Mixed 1: Evaluator 1: $2, Evaluator 2: $0
~500 Mixed 2: Evaluator 1: $0, Evaluator 2: $2
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Health Sciences and Behavioral Sciences
IRB Approval Date
2022-12-10
IRB Approval Number
HUM00224855
Analysis Plan

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information