The Dark Side of Overconfidence

Last registered on August 26, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Dark Side of Overconfidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012571
Initial registration date
December 10, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 20, 2023, 9:24 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
August 26, 2024, 10:13 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Christoph Drobner
Affiliation
Technical University Munich
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Yesim Orhun
PI Affiliation
University of Michigan
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-12-10
End date
2023-12-20
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Overconfidence, Effort, Misguided Learning, Self-Serving Attribution Bias
JEL code(s)
C91, D83, D84
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how (miscalibrated) beliefs about one’s ability causally affect optimal actions through (misguided) inferences about an external fundamental. Our experimental paradigm ensures that the causal impact of beliefs on effort solely operates through inferences about an external fundamental to eliminate any motivational confounds arising from learning about one’s ability.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Drobner, Christoph and Yesim Orhun. 2024. "The Dark Side of Overconfidence." AEA RCT Registry. August 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12571-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
see pre-analysis plan
Intervention Start Date
2023-12-10
Intervention End Date
2023-12-20

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Performance priors
Returns to effort beliefs
Decoding task score
Decoding task time
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Performance priors = participants' probabilistic beliefs about the likelihood that they rank in the top half of the logic quiz among a group of 4 subjects, including themselves.
Returns to effort beliefs = probabilistic beliefs about the likelihood that evaluator 1 is the performance evaluator.
Decoding task score = number of correctly solved decoding tasks.
Decoding task time = time spent on the decoding tasks.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
see pre-analysis plan
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Individual level randomization
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~2000
Sample size: planned number of observations
~2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~500 Both high: Evaluator 1: $2, Evaluator 2: $2
~500 Both low: Evaluator 1: $0, Evaluator 2: $0
~500 Mixed 1: Evaluator 1: $2, Evaluator 2: $0
~500 Mixed 2: Evaluator 1: $0, Evaluator 2: $2
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Health Sciences and Behavioral Sciences
IRB Approval Date
2022-12-10
IRB Approval Number
HUM00224855
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Pre-analysis plan

MD5: 6465806efb5312659284b310d061cde0

SHA1: 5ba94c4a652871f445e70d2cc5e64c7cbc402946

Uploaded At: December 09, 2023

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
December 20, 2023, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
December 20, 2023, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
2,011
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
2,011
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
2,011
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

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Program Files

Program Files
No
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials