Recession Spillovers

Last registered on December 15, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Recession Spillovers
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012645
Initial registration date
December 06, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 15, 2023, 3:59 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Philipp Heil
Affiliation
ifo Institute
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-12-07
End date
2023-12-21
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine how information about recession forecasts influences macroeconomic expectations of experts. We run a large-scale international surveys among economic experts and measure the effects of information about foreign recession probabilities on expectations about recession probabilities in your home country. Implications for policy advice is also examined.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Heil, Philipp. 2023. "Recession Spillovers." AEA RCT Registry. December 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12645-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants of the survey will be randomized into a treatment and a control group. The treatment group will receive the information about the probability of a recession in another country. The control group will receive no information.
Intervention Start Date
2023-12-07
Intervention End Date
2023-12-21

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations on Recession probability and Policy Recommendations.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
I examine how information about recession forecasts influences macroeconomic expectations of experts. I run a large-scale international surveys among economic experts and measure the effects of information about foreign recession probabilities on expectations about recession probabilities in their host country. Recommendations for policy options are also examined
Experimental Design Details
I examine how information about recession forecasts influences macroeconomic expectations of experts. I run a large-scale international surveys among economic experts and measure the effects of information about foreign recession probabilities on expectations about recession probabilities in their host country. Recommendations for policy options are also examined. Participants are randomly split in two groups. The survey will be implemented between 7 December 2023 and 21 December 2023. The first group (treatment group) will receive the information, that the probability of a recession in the United States of America next year is at 46%. The second group (control group) will not receive any information. After that, both treated and untreated Experts will be asked about their expectations on the recession probability in their respective host country. To elicit mechanisms of the effect of the information treatment on expectations about a recession, Experts will be asked about the drivers of recession in their host country. Finally, Experts' policy recommendations are inquired.

The hypothesis to be examined in the experiment is that there are spillover effects from foreign forecasts about recession probability to individual expectations about a recession. I expect experts that have been informed about the high recession probability in the United States of America, to report higher recession probabilities for their host countries than experts in the control group. I also expect the effect to be stronger for experts from countries that have stronger economic ties with the United States, through trade or other channels.
Experts are also asked to give policy recommendations.

Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer in office.
Randomization Unit
Experts
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1400
Sample size: planned number of observations
1400
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
700 control experts, 700 treatment experts
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials