News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment

Last registered on December 06, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012654
Initial registration date
December 05, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 06, 2023, 9:05 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Lena Draeger
Affiliation
Leibniz University Hannover
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jan Behringer
PI Affiliation
Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), Germany
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Sebastian Dullien
PI Affiliation
Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), Germany
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Sebastian Gechert
PI Affiliation
Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-09-28
End date
2021-10-12
Keywords
Governance
Additional Keywords
public debt, fiscal rules, information treatment, expectations
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
D83, E60, H31, H60
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. The study is conducted in an online survey with about 3.800 Germans, where the sample is chosen to be representative of the overall population.
Our survey experiment is conducted in two steps: In the first step, we randomly split the sample into three groups. The control group receives no anchor, whereas the debt-anchor groupand the interest-anchor group are informed about one historical value of the German debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratio, respectively. In the second step of the experiment, we randomly provide information on the time series of the German debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratios up to the most recently available year. Within these treatment groups, some respondents previously received the anchor, and some did not. After the information treatment, we measure respondents' views on public debt, on public investment and on the design of the debt brake.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Behringer, Jan et al. 2023. "News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment." AEA RCT Registry. December 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12654-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
First step of the experiment:
T1: information on the German debt-to-GDP ratio in 2009 (73 percent)
T2: information on the German interest-to-tax-revenue ratio in 2009 (5.9 percent)
T3: no information (control group)

Second step of the experiment:
T1: Text "In 2020, the public debt ratio in Germany was 70 percent. This means that the debt level was about as large as two-thirds of annual economic output. The following chart shows the debt ratio in Germany over time. As a reminder: You estimated the public debt ratio in 2020 at [own estimate] percent." and graph showing the time series of the German debt-to-GDP ratio from 1991-2020.
T2: Text "In 2020, the interest-to-tax revenue ratio in Germany was about 1.4 percent. This means that out of every 100 euros of revenue, the state had to spend 1.40 euros on interest payments. The following chart shows the interest-to-tax revenue ratio in Germany over time. As a reminder: You estimated the interest-to-tax revenue ratio in 2020 at [own estimate] percent." and graph showing the time series of the German interest-to-tax revenue ratio from 1991-2020.
T3: no information treatment (control group)
Intervention Start Date
2021-09-28
Intervention End Date
2021-10-12

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- estimates of current debt-to-GDP and interest-to-tax revenue ratios (in percent)
- How far the current level of public debt in Germany is seen as a big problem (qualitative scale)
- What respondents think the current constitutional debt brake prescribes (hence their knowledge about existing rules) (dummy variable for choosing the correct answer option)
- How respondents think the debt brake should be constructed (after telling them about the current rule) (dummy variables for each suggested debt brake)
- How respondents think public investment should be financed (dummy variables for each financing option)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our survey experiment is conducted in two steps: In the first step, we randomly split the sample into three groups. The control group receives no anchor, the debt-anchor group is informed about the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2009 (73 percent) and the interest-anchor group is informed about the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio in 2009 (5.9 percent). We then evaluate the impact of these anchors on respondents' estimates of the current debt-to-GDP as well as the current interest-to-tax-revenue ratio for interests paid on government debt in Germany.
In the second step of the experiment, directly after estimating the current ratios, the sample is randomly split again: the first group receives the debt info treatment. Of these, 50 percent were previously treated with the debt anchor. The debt info treatment provides text and graphical information about the time series of the debt-to-GDP ratio in Germany and reminds respondents about their previous estimate of the current debt-to-GDP ratio. The second group receives the interest information treatment. Once more, 50 percent of respondents in this treatment group had been given an interest coverage anchor prior to the information treatment. The interest information treatment provides text and graphical information about the time series of the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio in Germany and reminds respondents about their previous estimate of the current interest-to-tax-revenue. Finally, the third group serves as a control group and receives no information treatment. This group also received no anchor in the first step.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization done by computed random variable during the online survey
Randomization Unit
first step: randomization at the individual level

second step: randomization at the group level:
- T1: 50% from T1 in step 1, 50% from T3 in step 1
- T2: 50% from T2 in step 1, 50% from T3 in step 1
- T3: 100% from T3 in step 1
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4,700 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,700 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Step 1:
T1: 600 individuals
T2: 600 individuals
T3: 3,500 individuals

Step 2:
T1: 1,200 individuals
T2: 1,200 individuals
T3: 2,300 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials