Far-right protests and their effect on internal migration

Last registered on January 02, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Far-right protests and their effect on internal migration
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012661
Initial registration date
December 12, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 02, 2024, 10:50 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Tommy Krieger
Affiliation
ZEW Mannheim
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Enzo Brox
PI Affiliation
University of St. Gallen
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-12-04
End date
2024-12-29
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
Migration, Political protest, far-right attitudes
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The purpose of the project is to examine whether people adjust their location decisions due to far-right mass protests. This experiment constitutes the second part of this project. In the first part, we provide some empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that far-right protests have a negative impact on internal migration. The purpose of the experiment is twofold. First, we want to substantiate the results of the first part of the project with experimental evidence. Second, we want to get a better understanding about how people update their views about a place if they learn about the existence of far-right protests. To reach these objectives, we use a stated-preference choice experiment. More specifically, we pose a variety of randomized location choices between two hypothetical cities to a representative sample of Germans (aged 18 - 44). The cities are characterized by six different attributes. The presence of far-right protests is one of these attributes. In the first part of the experiment, participants are asked to decided which place they prefer as place of residence. In the second part, we ask for specific expectation, for instance with regard to security concerns and medium-run economic development.


External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Brox, Enzo and Tommy Krieger. 2024. "Far-right protests and their effect on internal migration." AEA RCT Registry. January 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12661-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-12-05
Intervention End Date
2023-12-29

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The key outcome variable is which place (A or B) is preferred by a participant as place of residence.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
The secondary outcome reflects which place (A or B) is considered as more attractive with regard to a certain dimension.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our experiment is a discrete choice experiment and run by the survey company Bilendi/Respondi. The experiment consists of two parts. In both of them, each survey participant is presented with seven randomly selected scenarios in which they have to decide between two hypothetical cities with at least 100,000 inhabitants. In the first part, all people are asked to indicate which of the cities they prefer as place of residence. In the second part, we randomly divide people in four subgroups and ask about their expectations in one of the following four dimensions:
- Personal security
- Likelihood of finding people with similar interests and views
- Medium-run economic development
- Quality of parks and green spaces

We characterize cities by six different attributes: cultural offerings; social diversity; number of far-right protests; climate activism, leisure offers for kids and families; quality of local infrastructure. All attributes can vary between three levels (low, medium, high).

The profile of each city is randomly drawn among the 729 (=3^6) possible profiles. We make sure that the two cities between which a participant has to decide are not identical.

Participants have to be German citizens and between 18 and 44 years. We impose regional quotes (East/West) according to the population size of the respective regions. We also make sure that the distribution of gender is nearly balanced. With regard to the age distribution, we define that 2/3 of the participants are between 18 and 29 years, while the remaining 1/3 of the participants are between 30 and 44 years.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Uniform randomization of choice scenario from the candidate array based on the software of a professional survey firm (Bilendi/Respondi).



Randomization Unit
Randomization is at the individual choice scenario level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Number of participants
Sample size: planned number of observations
42000 choices across 3000 indiviuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Part 1: all 3000 participants (7 choices per individual)
Part 2: 750 participants per subgroup (7 choices per individual)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Analysis Plan (new)

MD5: 71840b4d2def38880529cab11491231c

SHA1: b9c55646f7710bc1b7304117b01c8d5425cf86e1

Uploaded At: December 30, 2023