Reducing Carbon Emissions while Boosting Growth: an Experiment with Turkish Manufacturing Firms

Last registered on May 17, 2024


Trial Information

General Information

Reducing Carbon Emissions while Boosting Growth: an Experiment with Turkish Manufacturing Firms
Initial registration date
January 05, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 09, 2024, 10:51 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
May 17, 2024, 3:41 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.



Primary Investigator

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford

Additional Trial Information

On going
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Understanding how to design policies to effectively reduce firm-level carbon emissions while minimizing impacts on economic growth is a question of central importance in the battle to mitigate climate change. The EU is proposing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that will tax imports to better reflect their carbon content. This project evaluates three policies that provide firms with training and assistance obtaining loans with the goal of mitigating the impacts of CBAM on Turkish SMEs. The first policy focuses on direct carbon mitigation that we expect to have limited growth spillovers. The second focuses on product innovation to move firms toward greener product mixes, and the third focuses on improving firm efficiency. Comparing outcomes related to both carbon emissions (including leakage) as well as firm-growth allows us to assess the tradeoffs between environmental and growth outcomes and explore whether policies can achieve both goals.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Atkin, David, Aaron Berman and Banu Demir. 2024. "Reducing Carbon Emissions while Boosting Growth: an Experiment with Turkish Manufacturing Firms." AEA RCT Registry. May 17.
Experimental Details


Out of our sample of firms that have applied to our intervention (which we anticipate to be approximately 1,000 firms), we will randomly select 75% to comprise our treatment group, which itself consists of three different intervention arms. Treatment arms will be approximately equal in size in order to maximize power to detect heterogeneous treatment effects across treatment arms. Our experimental conditions are as follows:

Control: these firms will receive an invitation to attend an online information session about CBAM and related carbon-centered policy developments, as well as on the circular economy.

Treatment: all treatment firms will also receive the opportunity to attend the informational webinar, along with two half-day online training sessions on one of the following topics. These firms will receive encouragement and one-on-one assistance from bankers in applying for EBRD loans earmarked for the particular treatment assigned to the firm:

T1: Carbon emissions mitigation (reducing emissions by mitigating carbon in the production process).
T2: Product switching/upgrading (reducing emissions by switching toward lower-emissions products and/or higher unit values).
T3: Productive efficiency improvements.
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Adoption of carbon-mitigation technologies and production strategies; firm-level economic outcomes such as sales and employment; firm-level carbon emissions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Firms' adoption of carbon-mitigating technologies and strategies will be measured via surveys which we administer to participating firms. Sales and employment data will be measured in these surveys as well as in administrative data maintained by the Turkish Statistical Institute and Ministry of Industry. Firm-level carbon emissions will be measured through a software system that we offer to participating firms.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will randomize firms into control and the three treatment arms listed above such that the expected size of each treatment arm is approximately 25% of the total number of firms in our sample.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization conducted on computers of the Turkish Statistical Institute using administrative data on firm sales.
Randomization Unit
Firms are grouped into clusters based on product mixes, and treatment is then randomly assigned at the cluster level. Clusters may have only one firm.
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Approximately 500 clusters of firms
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 1,000 firms
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
250 firms in control and in each of three treatment arms
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
MIT Committee on the Use of Humans as Experimental Subjects
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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