Understanding non-take-up of Pension Credit and evaluating strategies to effectively boost it

We will send letters that inform recipients about their eligibility to Pension Credit (PC). The letters will vary in their content:
a) A basic letter, informing pensioners about PC, how much they are entitled to, and how to claim
b) A letter like (a) which also attempts to reduce stigma by emphasising that most eligible people claim
c) A letter like (a) except with branding from AgeUK, a highly trusted third party, rather than the borough, who may not be trusted
d) A letter like (a) which also emphasises that PC is private, so friends and family will not know the claimant gets it

In February 2024, the sample of eligible non-recipients will be randomly and equally split into four groups. In 10 (of the 16) local authorities, one group will receive no letter and the other three will receive one of letters a, b, or c. In October 2024, we will send letter d to the group who received no letter initially (if they are still eligible non-claimants). In 6 local authorities, all four groups will receive a letter, equally split between letters a, b, c and d. In October 2024, we will also send all newly eligible individuals and all individuals who have already received a letter and have not begun claims a standard letter (letter a).
The letters will specify the amount that recipients are (thought to be) entitled to. This will be rounded up to the nearest £500 per year (e.g. "You are entitled to up to £2,500 per year")

These letters will be sent in participating London boroughs (19)

2024-01-29

2024-10-31

Claiming PC six months after the letter is sent out

Claiming Attendance Allowance, poverty rates, council tax arrears, and social rent arrears.

Poverty rates will be calculated by comparing the household's income (as measured in the administrative data we are using) to the official before housing cost absolute and relative poverty line for 2024-25 (from the Households Below Average Income data).
Data on social rent arrears are only available in some boroughs. We will only examine the impact on social rent arrears for those households for whom we can observe them.
We will examine both share of households in arrears (council tax and social rent) and the average level of arrears as outcomes.

RCTs, with stratified randomisation by local authority and estimated PC eligibility.

To study the impact of information on outcomes, we will compare recipients of letter (a) those who received no letter each month up until the point that letter (d) is sent out, using recipients in the 10 local authorities that had a "no letter" group.
To study the impact of stigma and trust on outcomes, we will compare recipients of letters (b) and (c) with those that received letter (a), using recipients from all 16 local authorities.
We will focus on outcomes six months after the letters were sent out.

We also conduct a regression discontinuity design (RDD) around the entitlement rounding thresholds. As described in the intervention field, the letters show estimated entitlement rounded up to the nearest £500. We will conduct a RDD around these thresholds, pooling across thresholds, using local linear regression.

To look at longer term outcomes and to measure the effect of letter (d), we will match control observations by drawing from eligible non-recipients of PC who are in the data we are using but live in metropolitan local authorities that are not one of the 16 that are part of the trial. We will match using baseline observations of key variables (age, sex, total income (in bands), council tax band, and separate indicators for any employment income, private pension income, state pension income, and disability benefit receipt). We will then conduct a difference-in-difference analysis, allowing us to examine the evolution of these secondary outcomes over time and the impact of letter receipt. For the initial outcomes for recipients of letter d, we will focus on outcomes within the first six months after receipt. For longer term outcomes (for all recipients) we will focus on outcomes 24 months after letter receipt.

Randomisation done in an office by a computer

Household

No

Approx. 9,400 households

Approx. 9,400 households

Approx. 2350 in each of the four treatment arms (letters a to d)

When comparing the impact of the standard letter (A) vs. control, we will have 99.9% power at the 5% significance level to detect a 20% effect (that is, a 20ppt difference in take-up). When comparing the impact of the stigma or trust letter (B or C) vs. the standard letter (A), we will have 88% power at the 5% significance level to detect a 4% effect.