Anticipatory humanitarian cash transfers in the context of weather disasters

Last registered on January 31, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Anticipatory humanitarian cash transfers in the context of weather disasters
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012880
Initial registration date
January 27, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 31, 2024, 11:53 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
PI Affiliation
RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-10-02
End date
2023-04-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, agricultural households face increasing challenges in adapting. There is an urgent need for policy tools that can assist households in coping with these events. Anticipatory humanitarian action is a novel approach where humanitarian organizations use meteorological forecasts to proactively distribute humanitarian assistance to households before disasters occur. This anticipatory distribution of assistance aims to prevent or reduce humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. This study conducts a randomized impact evaluation of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia, where extreme winter conditions cause high livestock mortality and threaten rural livelihoods. We evaluate the effectiveness of cash transfers with an average value of 236 USD to at-risk households amid the extremely severe winter of 2020/21. Specifically, we investigate whether the receipt of one-off cash transfers helped pastoralist households prevent socioeconomic damage by considering their effects on households’ assets, income, investments, and consumption.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kraehnert, Kati, Lukas Mogge and Julian Roeckert. 2024. "Anticipatory humanitarian cash transfers in the context of weather disasters." AEA RCT Registry. January 31. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12880-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Large parts of the rural population in Mongolia rely on livestock herding for their livelihood. In recent years, harsh winter conditions have led to substantial livestock mortality and significantly impacted exposed pastoralists’ socioeconomic well-being. In reaction, steps towards an early warning system have been undertaken. Since 2015, Mongolia’s Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment (IRIMHE) has released geographic risk projections for extreme winter conditions during the early winter. These risk maps are utilized as a trigger in several anticipatory humanitarian assistance programs implemented by international organizations, such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and FAO. As soon as a pre-determined risk level is reached, humanitarian assistance is disbursed to at-risk households to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully materialize. The early distribution is intended to make humanitarian assistance more effective and cost-efficient than conventional humanitarian disaster relief.

The intervention evaluated in this study is an unconditional cash transfer distributed to pastoralist households in Western Mongolia in March 2021. The cash transfer targets households in areas projected to be at very high, high, or medium risk of experiencing extreme winter conditions in the risk map released on January 10, 2021. Cash transfers to 421 households were financed by the German Federal Foreign Office. The average value of the cash transfer is 236 USD. The value of the cash transfer is informed by existing anticipatory humanitarian action programs in Mongolia, amounting to approximately 1.7 months of working for the national minimum wage or the market price of four sheep at the time of the intervention.

The distribution of the cash transfers was implemented by the INGO People in Need (PIN) and follows an experimental design that allows for a rigorous impact evaluation. The assistance was disbursed through bank transfers. A pre-intervention survey ascertained that the potential needs of vulnerable people concerning accessing local bank branches were identified and could be addressed. Immediately after the bank transactions were completed, PIN informed recipient households via phone call or text message that they received the transfers.
Intervention Start Date
2022-03-12
Intervention End Date
2022-03-13

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
livestock assets, income, herd-related investments, home consumption of livestock, and consumption expenditures
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The impact evaluation builds on the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey (Kraehnert et al. 2022), which has been implemented in 3 western provinces (Govi-Altai, Zavkhan, and Uvs) of Mongolia since 2012. The initial sample comprises 1,768 households. Data from wave 4, collected between June 2020 and May 2021, serves as baseline data. Data from wave 5, collected between June 2021 and May 2022, serves as endline data.

The relevant population for the cash transfer intervention is households that fulfill three eligibility criteria: i) they must be sample households of the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey, ii) they must live in an area projected to be at very high, high, or medium risk of experiencing extreme winter conditions, according to a risk map published by IRIMHE on January 10, 2021, and (iii) they must own livestock. The eligibility of households was assessed based on survey data available in February 2021. At this time, data from panel wave 4 of the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey was available for 793 households. For 975 households, for whom panel wave 4 data was unavailable at the time, information from previous panel waves was used. Based on the latest available data, a study sample of 925 households meeting the three eligibility criteria was selected.

Among these 925 eligible households, 421 were assigned to the treatment group, while 504 were allocated to the control group through a random lottery implemented in STATA by the authors. Treatment households were earmarked to receive an average of 236 USD as a one-off unconditional cash transfer from the NGO People in Need (PIN).

Randomization was conducted on the sub-district level (using the latest information on the sub-district of residence available in February 2021). The 925 eligible households lived in 111 sub-districts. 50 sub-districts were randomly selected to comprise the treatment group. In February 2021, all eligible households in these districts were surveyed by the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO) and informed that they were chosen to receive a cash transfer. Enumerators were able to locate and survey 381 of the 421 households selected for treatment. All those 381 households gave their consent to participate in the study.

The 50 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to two treatment arms with varying values for the cash transfer. Eligible households in 25 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to receive a cash transfer of 177 USD, while eligible households in the other 25 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to receive a cash transfer of 295 USD.

All those 381 households gave their consent to participate in the study. In March 2021, PIN distributed cash transfers via bank transfer to 381 households participating in the pre-intervention survey.

Kraehnert, K., Lehmann-Uschner, K., Groppo, V., Bertram-Huemmer, V., Fluhrer, S., Mogge, L., Roeckert, J., & Wojewska, A. (2022). Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey, Waves 1-5. Version 2.0.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by computer
Randomization Unit
Randomization at the sub-district level
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
111 sub-districts
Sample size: planned number of observations
925 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Cash transfer treatment group: 421 households in 50 sub-districts (212 households in 25 sub-districts to receive 177 USD and 209 households in 25 sub-districts to receive 295 USD).

Control group: 504 households (in 61 sub-districts)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
March 13, 2022, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
May 31, 2022, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
108 sub-districts
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
815 households
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Cash transfer treatment group: 373 households in 50 sub-districts (188 households in 25 sub-districts to receive 177 USD and 185 households in 25 sub-districts to receive 295 USD). Control group: 442 households (in 58 sub-districts)
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

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Program Files

Program Files
No
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials