Anticipatory humanitarian cash transfers in the context of weather disasters

Large parts of the rural population in Mongolia rely on livestock herding for their livelihood. In recent years, harsh winter conditions have led to substantial livestock mortality and significantly impacted exposed pastoralists’ socioeconomic well-being. In reaction, steps towards an early warning system have been undertaken. Since 2015, Mongolia’s Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment (IRIMHE) has released geographic risk projections for extreme winter conditions during the early winter. These risk maps are utilized as a trigger in several anticipatory humanitarian assistance programs implemented by international organizations, such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and FAO. As soon as a pre-determined risk level is reached, humanitarian assistance is disbursed to at-risk households to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully materialize. The early distribution is intended to make humanitarian assistance more effective and cost-efficient than conventional humanitarian disaster relief.

The intervention evaluated in this study is an unconditional cash transfer distributed to pastoralist households in Western Mongolia in March 2021. The cash transfer targets households in areas projected to be at very high, high, or medium risk of experiencing extreme winter conditions in the risk map released on January 10, 2021. Cash transfers to 421 households were financed by the German Federal Foreign Office. The average value of the cash transfer is 236 USD. The value of the cash transfer is informed by existing anticipatory humanitarian action programs in Mongolia, amounting to approximately 1.7 months of working for the national minimum wage or the market price of four sheep at the time of the intervention.

The distribution of the cash transfers was implemented by the INGO People in Need (PIN) and follows an experimental design that allows for a rigorous impact evaluation. The assistance was disbursed through bank transfers. A pre-intervention survey ascertained that the potential needs of vulnerable people concerning accessing local bank branches were identified and could be addressed. Immediately after the bank transactions were completed, PIN informed recipient households via phone call or text message that they received the transfers.

2022-03-12

2022-03-13

livestock assets, income, herd-related investments, home consumption of livestock, and consumption expenditures

The impact evaluation builds on the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey (Kraehnert et al. 2022), which has been implemented in 3 western provinces (Govi-Altai, Zavkhan, and Uvs) of Mongolia since 2012. The initial sample comprises 1,768 households. Data from wave 4, collected between June 2020 and May 2021, serves as baseline data. Data from wave 5, collected between June 2021 and May 2022, serves as endline data.

The relevant population for the cash transfer intervention is households that fulfill three eligibility criteria: i) they must be sample households of the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey, ii) they must live in an area projected to be at very high, high, or medium risk of experiencing extreme winter conditions, according to a risk map published by IRIMHE on January 10, 2021, and (iii) they must own livestock. The eligibility of households was assessed based on survey data available in February 2021. At this time, data from panel wave 4 of the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey was available for 793 households. For 975 households, for whom panel wave 4 data was unavailable at the time, information from previous panel waves was used. Based on the latest available data, a study sample of 925 households meeting the three eligibility criteria was selected.

Among these 925 eligible households, 421 were assigned to the treatment group, while 504 were allocated to the control group through a random lottery implemented in STATA by the authors. Treatment households were earmarked to receive an average of 236 USD as a one-off unconditional cash transfer from the NGO People in Need (PIN).

Randomization was conducted on the sub-district level (using the latest information on the sub-district of residence available in February 2021). The 925 eligible households lived in 111 sub-districts. 50 sub-districts were randomly selected to comprise the treatment group. In February 2021, all eligible households in these districts were surveyed by the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO) and informed that they were chosen to receive a cash transfer. Enumerators were able to locate and survey 381 of the 421 households selected for treatment. All those 381 households gave their consent to participate in the study.

The 50 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to two treatment arms with varying values for the cash transfer. Eligible households in 25 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to receive a cash transfer of 177 USD, while eligible households in the other 25 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to receive a cash transfer of 295 USD.

All those 381 households gave their consent to participate in the study. In March 2021, PIN distributed cash transfers via bank transfer to 381 households participating in the pre-intervention survey.

Kraehnert, K., Lehmann-Uschner, K., Groppo, V., Bertram-Huemmer, V., Fluhrer, S., Mogge, L., Roeckert, J., & Wojewska, A. (2022). Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey, Waves 1-5. Version 2.0.

Randomization done in office by computer

Randomization at the sub-district level

Yes

111 sub-districts

925 households

Cash transfer treatment group: 421 households in 50 sub-districts (212 households in 25 sub-districts to receive 177 USD and 209 households in 25 sub-districts to receive 295 USD).

Control group: 504 households (in 61 sub-districts)