Experimental Design
The impact evaluation builds on the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey (Kraehnert et al. 2022), which has been implemented in 3 western provinces (Govi-Altai, Zavkhan, and Uvs) of Mongolia since 2012. The initial sample comprises 1,768 households. Data from wave 4, collected between June 2020 and May 2021, serves as baseline data. Data from wave 5, collected between June 2021 and May 2022, serves as endline data.
The relevant population for the cash transfer intervention is households that fulfill three eligibility criteria: i) they must be sample households of the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey, ii) they must live in an area projected to be at very high, high, or medium risk of experiencing extreme winter conditions, according to a risk map published by IRIMHE on January 10, 2021, and (iii) they must own livestock. The eligibility of households was assessed based on survey data available in February 2021. At this time, data from panel wave 4 of the Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey was available for 793 households. For 975 households, for whom panel wave 4 data was unavailable at the time, information from previous panel waves was used. Based on the latest available data, a study sample of 925 households meeting the three eligibility criteria was selected.
Among these 925 eligible households, 421 were assigned to the treatment group, while 504 were allocated to the control group through a random lottery implemented in STATA by the authors. Treatment households were earmarked to receive an average of 236 USD as a one-off unconditional cash transfer from the NGO People in Need (PIN).
Randomization was conducted on the sub-district level (using the latest information on the sub-district of residence available in February 2021). The 925 eligible households lived in 111 sub-districts. 50 sub-districts were randomly selected to comprise the treatment group. In February 2021, all eligible households in these districts were surveyed by the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO) and informed that they were chosen to receive a cash transfer. Enumerators were able to locate and survey 381 of the 421 households selected for treatment. All those 381 households gave their consent to participate in the study.
The 50 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to two treatment arms with varying values for the cash transfer. Eligible households in 25 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to receive a cash transfer of 177 USD, while eligible households in the other 25 sub-districts in the treatment group were assigned to receive a cash transfer of 295 USD.
All those 381 households gave their consent to participate in the study. In March 2021, PIN distributed cash transfers via bank transfer to 381 households participating in the pre-intervention survey.
Kraehnert, K., Lehmann-Uschner, K., Groppo, V., Bertram-Huemmer, V., Fluhrer, S., Mogge, L., Roeckert, J., & Wojewska, A. (2022). Coping with Shocks in Mongolia Household Panel Survey, Waves 1-5. Version 2.0.