Experimental Design
*Main Survey/Experiment
In what follows, we describe a sketch of our experiment.
First, we ask our respondents to answer the current debt-to-GDP ratio. We provide an anchor for these estimates. The respondents are divided into two groups, with the two groups differing in the information we provide as an anchor. We examine the consequences of different anchoring values. If distributions of the perceived debt-to-GDP ratio are different, we control for the difference.
Group 1: They receive information on the debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan in 2010.
Group 2: They receive information on the average debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan from 2002 to 2010.
In addition, we ask our respondents to predict the expected debt-to-GDP ratio of Japan in 2032.
Second, we split our respondents into the treatment group and the control group, with the treatment group further subdivided into three separate groups.
Treatment group 1: They receive information about the actual debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan in 2022 (about 215 percent).
Treatment group 2: They receive information about the actual debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan in 2022 and the optimistic forecasts of the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2032 by the Cabinet Office of Japan.
Treatment group 3: They receive information about the actual debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan in 2022 and the pessimistic forecasts of the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2032 by the Cabinet Office of Japan.
Third, we ask our respondents various questions regarding their support of fiscal policy. We ask them whether they think Japan has too much government debt and whether the government should reduce this debt. We also ask them their preferences towards the amount of government spending both overall and for different spending categories (i.e., public infrastructure, education, low birthrate prevention, R&D, environment, and defense). We ask them whether the government should increase or decrease the taxes (i.e., the income tax, the consumption tax, and the inheritance tax).
Fourth, we ask all respondents a series of basic questions such as their age, gender, income, marriage status, the number of children under 18, employment status, and education.
Finally, in order to explore mechanisms, we ask about respondents' expectations regarding the sustainability of public finances, the trust they place in the government, and their views on the government's effectiveness.
*Follow-up Survey
We conduct the follow-up experiment four weeks after the main experiment. In the follow-up experiment, we reexamine our respondents' support for government spending and taxation. Furthermore, at the end of the experiment, we ask people about their estimate of the current debt-to-GDP ratio.