CAN POPULATION PRESSURE CAUSE SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEMS TO WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH? AN ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT PAST (1) ABSTRACT: Paper to submit at the American Economic Review

Last registered on April 02, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
CAN POPULATION PRESSURE CAUSE SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEMS TO WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH? AN ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT PAST (1) ABSTRACT: Paper to submit at the American Economic Review
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012986
Initial registration date
February 17, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 02, 2024, 1:00 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Withdrawn
Start date
2024-02-19
End date
2024-02-29
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this paper we present further quantitative evidence for the impact of population growth on the world economy (prices, per capita GDP) during the second demographic transition. We use population growth as a proxy for the evolution of aggregate demand at the world level as well as the United Nations population-growth projections to the end of the twenty-first century. Since population can be considered as an endogenous variable of the economy, an Instrumental Variable analysis has been developed in order to obtain reliable results on the causality effect of population growth on the world economy. We compare worldwide results with the Instrumental Variables results of the continents that currently represent the greater population pressure on supply: Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. From the regional case studies, we conclude that inflation rates are mostly explained by the purchasing power of populations – that is, the aggregate demand – rather than by population pressure. On the other hand, population ageing in the richest countries (such as OECD and China) have a life-cycle effect that impacts world measures on economic growth: a marginal increase of population causes a marginal decrease of GDP per capita.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Camps-Cura, Enriqueta. 2024. "CAN POPULATION PRESSURE CAUSE SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEMS TO WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH? AN ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT PAST (1) ABSTRACT: Paper to submit at the American Economic Review." AEA RCT Registry. April 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12986-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This paper is not based in an experiment
Intervention Start Date
2024-02-24
Intervention End Date
2024-02-29

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
This paper is not based on an experiment . It poses the question on how population pressure and affect world's economic sustainabilty which for the moment is feaseble by means of green techinological change
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Influence of world's population growth on sustainanbility (inflation and per acpita GDP)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Regional Case studies representing more population pressure don'e cause major problems of sustainanblity. A detereminant factor is purchasing power of population
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
No experimental design. IV causality analysis. IV analysisis based in a randomized vararaible to control for populpation pressure. World's regions causing more population pressure are not causing higher inflation rates. Population ageing in developed countries implies a marginal increase of popualtion causes a marginal decrease of per capita GDP at teh world aggregate level.
Experimental Design Details
IV randomized varaible to reach valid econometric analysis
Randomization Method
IV causality analysis
Randomization Unit
Country
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
400
Sample size: planned number of observations
8000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
80000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB Approval Date
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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials