Insurance Sophistication and the Threat of Attack

Last registered on December 28, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Insurance Sophistication and the Threat of Attack
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013035
Initial registration date
February 14, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 16, 2024, 4:17 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
December 28, 2025, 8:09 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Australia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Zachary Breig
Affiliation
The University of Queensland
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Claudio Mezzetti
PI Affiliation
The University of Queensland
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Zarina Vakhitova
PI Affiliation
Monash University
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-02-26
End date
2024-06-30
Keywords
Behavior, Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Lab
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The focus of this experiment will be the effect that the structure of the insurance market has on the outcomes of ransomware attacks. In a simple model, we can show that ransomware insurance affects the distribution of attackers' ransom requests and the likelihood that the data is returned. In the experiment, we will empirically evaluate the effects of two types of insurance: "naive" (insurance that is predicted to lead to lower overall efficiency) and "sophisticated" (insurance that is predicted to lead to higher overall efficiency).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Breig, Zachary, Claudio Mezzetti and Zarina Vakhitova. 2025. "Insurance Sophistication and the Threat of Attack." AEA RCT Registry. December 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13035-2.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2024-02-26
Intervention End Date
2024-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) ransom requests, 2) total surplus, and 3) target surplus
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We compare the effects of different insurance regimes on market outcomes. If it is available, victims choose whether they wish to purchase insurance. Attackers choose the ransom that they will request. Victims choose whether or not to pay the ransom. Full experimental details, including screenshots, are included in the pre-analysis plan.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization will be completed using the experimental software.
Randomization Unit
Groups, roles, and insurance availability will be randomized within each round.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
160-180 subjects
Sample size: planned number of observations
25 rounds for each subject
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
See pre-analysis plan for details.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UQ BEL LNR Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2023-01-30
IRB Approval Number
2023/HE000101
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

PAP_Insurance_Sophistication.pdf

MD5: 0bbfd694ca3bb36124a55dfa0f80edb8

SHA1: 47eec65045a459b2e7d6369a2db0c3a259107e89

Uploaded At: February 14, 2024

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
March 08, 2024, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
March 08, 2024, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials